ALL PUBLICATIONS

Articles

603 published analyses, newest first.

Statement on China’s Actions Concerning the Brahmaputra Dam and Aksai Chin Counties
MEDIA COVERAGEJANUARY 4, 2025
49

Statement on China’s Actions Concerning the Brahmaputra Dam and Aksai Chin Counties

Red Lantern Analytica strongly condemns China’s unilateral actions regarding the construction of a $137 billion dam on the Brahmaputra River near the Indian border and the establishment of two new counties in Aksai Chin (India’s Kashmir in occupation by Chinese forces). Such actions are blatant violations of India’s sovereignty and demonstrate a clear intent to undermine bilateral relations and regional peace. The Brahmaputra dam project raises serious ecological, hydrological, and geopolitical concerns. India unequivocally demands that China ensures no harm to downstream states, adheres to international conventions, and engages transparently with affected countries. China proceeded with the Brahmaputra dam approval, bypassing established conventions by failing to provide India with prior notice or consultation. Additionally, the establishment of new counties in the Aksai Chin region -He’an County and Hekang County further aggravates tensions by seeking to legitimize its illegal occupation of Indian territory violates India’s sovereignty. Aksai Chin is integral to India’s Union Territory of Ladakh, and China’s attempt to legitimize its occupation is unacceptable. India reaffirms that such actions are illegal and unjustified, and a formal protest has been lodged. Red Lantern Analytica urges China to cease its aggressive expansionism, respect international law, and engage in meaningful dialogue. India reserves its right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its territorial integrity and water security.

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Statement Condemning Military Crackdown in Pakistan over civilians supporting the Ex-PM
MEDIA COVERAGEDECEMBER 27, 2024
50

Statement Condemning Military Crackdown in Pakistan over civilians supporting the Ex-PM

We at Red Lantern Analytica express our deep concern over the military court convictions of 85 civilians, including 60 announced on Thursday, for their participation in pro-Imran Khan protests. These trials, conducted in secrecy and devoid of judicial independence and transparency, undermine the fundamental rights of citizens and erode public trust in the rule of law. The use of military courts to try civilians for political dissent sets a dangerous precedent and reflects a troubling slide in Pakistan’s adherence to democratic norms. The lack of transparency in these proceedings, as highlighted by international condemnation from the United States, European Union, and the United Kingdom, underscores the urgent need for accountability and judicial reform. We strongly urge Pakistan’s leadership to uphold its constitutional commitments, ensuring that all citizens have access to fair trials in civilian courts. The international community must pay close attention to these developments and engage constructively to safeguard democratic principles in Pakistan. The ongoing crackdown on opposition voices, including former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his supporters, threatens the very fabric of democratic governance. It is imperative that the global community works collectively to support a free, fair, and transparent political environment in Pakistan. Red Lantern Analytica remains steadfast in its commitment to advocating for the rule of law, democratic values, and human rights worldwide.

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Understanding The Syrian Civil War – Past and Present
COMMENTARIESDECEMBER 20, 2024
51

Understanding The Syrian Civil War – Past and Present

Syria and Lebanon, also referred to as the Levant States (1923–1946), were initially governed under a mandate system established by the erstwhile League of Nations after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and in the aftermath of the First World War. Under the mandate, the governing country sought to act as a trustee until the people were considered “eligible” to self-govern; at this point, the mandate would terminate, and a sovereign nation would be born. By the end of the war in 1918, by the Sykes-Picot Agreement, Britain held Iraq and the southern part of Ottoman Syria, including Israel, Palestine, and Transjordan regions, while France controlled the rest of Syria, which comprised Lebanon, Alexandretta (a province of Turkey), and portions of Cilicia. Even though after the fall of the Ottomans in Syria, Faisal, son of Hussein bin Ali, King of Hejaz (leading the Arab Revolt), established the first post-war Arab government in Damascus in October 1918 and the British forces withdrew on 26 November 1919, the Arab government had to face France, which demanded full control of Syria under the Treaty of Sevres. Also, the outcome was despite the conclusions of the American King-Crane Commission, which confirmed the opposition of the majority of Syrians to the mandate and the Balfour Declaration as per its remit of the 36 major cities, 300 villages, and petitions numbering more than 3000. Later, General Gouraud (France) issued an ultimatum to Faisal with the choice of either a submission or an abdication. Faisal, realizing the weak balance of power, decided to cooperate. Youssef al-Azmeh, the Syrian minister of war, however, decided to revolt, following which the Franco-Syrian War was fought in which the French decimated the Arab forces and Azmeh died on the battlefield. On 29 September 1923, France was assigned the mandate to govern Syria by the League of Nations (part of the claim included the acknowledgment of France as the protector of minority Christians during the Ottoman Empire), and the administration of the region was carried out under a host of different governments and territories, including the Alawite State, the Jabal Druze State, the Mandatory Syrian Republic (1930–46), the State of Syria (1925–1930), and the Syrian Federation (1922–24). Levant Crisis and Syrian Independence Later, in 1936, the Franco-Syrian Treaty of Independence, also known as the Vienot Accords, was signed, which provided for Syrian independence. However, fearing that the French withdrawal from the mandated states would propel Nazi Germany to fill the vacuum, France continued to occupy Syria, whereupon riots broke out in the region, especially in Aleppo, and the fighting escalated between Syrian youths and French forces in Hama and Homs, resulting in more than 1000 Syrian deaths and countless homes being destroyed while the new president, Hashim al-Atassi, resigned. When the news of the immense casualty loss reached the UK Prime Minister, Winston Churchill sent Charles de Gaulle a message: “In order to avoid a collision between British and French forces, we request you immediately order French troops to cease fire and withdraw to their barracks.” The order being ignored, Britain intervened with troops and tanks from the 31st Indian Armoured Division invading Syria from Transjordan and striking Damascus while cutting off communications of the French forces. Finally, at gunpoint, the French were forced to accept the safe return to their barracks. Syria became fully independent on 17 April 1946, even as both the British and French forces withdrew from Syria and Lebanon, respectively. In October, both Syria and Lebanon were recognized as independent states and admitted as founding members of the United Nations. Syrian Diplomatic Crisis of 1957 Between 18 August and October 1957, severe diplomatic confrontations broke out between Syria and the Soviet Union on the one hand and the United States and its allies along with the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), also known as the Baghdad Pact (Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and the United Kingdom). Apprehensiveness began when the Western governments accused the Syrian government presided over by Shukri al-Quwatli of making the appointment of Col. Afif al-Bizri as chief of staff of the Syrian Army, alleged to be a Soviet sympathizer, and other institutional changes in line with “Soviet understanding.” Thereafter, suspecting that a Soviet takeover had been organized in Damascus, the neighboring states of Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan started considering support for an Arab/Western military intervention to overthrow the Syrian government. The then US Secretary of State, John Foster Dulles, described the situation as “totally unacceptable” and called for further efforts to prevent Syria from becoming a “Soviet satellite.” Under the advice of Dulles, President Dwight Eisenhower made some unclear statements on the events during a press conference while Syria responded with its press conference, stating that Syria was committed to a foreign policy doctrine called “positive neutralism,” which was in stark contrast with the “paternalism” of the Cold War superpowers. A telegram from the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia to the State Department stated as follows – “Time approaching, if indeed not already arrived, when Syria will cease to be effectively an independent nation but will have been taken over as was Czechoslovakia in 1948 and made into a Soviet satellite having independence only in name and not in substance. We are also convinced that once the present group now in control of Damascus has consolidated its position in Syria, it will reach out in efforts to subvert surrounding countries, thus propagating the Communist virus and paving the way for control by elements subservient to Moscow.” While Turkey was the only country to deploy thousands of troops along the Syrian border, Nikita Khrushchev, the first Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, threatened to launch missiles at Turkey if it would attack Syria, the United States intimidated the Soviet Union in case it would launch an assault on Turkey. Later, in October, following pressure from the United States, Turkey withdrew its forces from the Syrian border, and Khrushchev made a surprise visit to the Turkish embassy in Moscow, and the crisis ended. Current

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Statement welcoming US sanctions on 4 Pakistan’s entities aiding its ballistic missile program
MEDIA COVERAGEDECEMBER 19, 2024
52

Statement welcoming US sanctions on 4 Pakistan’s entities aiding its ballistic missile program

We welcome the United States’ decisive action in sanctioning four entities contributing to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program. This proactive step underscores the critical importance of addressing proliferation risks that undermine regional and global security. Pakistan’s continued development of long-range ballistic missile capabilities poses a significant threat to South Asia. Pakistan’s National Development Complex – which is responsible for Pakistan’s ballistic missile program and has allegedly worked to acquire items to advance Pakistan’s long range ballistic missile program through Affiliates International, Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, and Rockside Enterprise. These according to the U.S. officials, have worked to supply equipment and missile-applicable items to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program, including its long range missile program The designation of entities such as the National Development Complex, Affiliates International, Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, and Rockside Enterprise highlights the persistent challenges of procurement networks facilitating the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Red Lantern Analytica commends the United States for demonstrating its commitment to curbing such activities through robust sanctions and constructive engagement with Pakistan. We believe this move reinforces the global non-proliferation framework and sends a clear message to those seeking to evade international norms. We encourage continued vigilance and collaborative efforts among the international community to counter the proliferation of technologies that threaten peace and security. Furthermore, we urge Pakistan to prioritize transparency and compliance with global non-proliferation standards, fostering a more stable and secure South Asia.

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Statement welcoming the UK’s Accession to CPTPP
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYDECEMBER 15, 2024
53

Statement welcoming the UK’s Accession to CPTPP

Red Lantern Analytica warmly welcomes the United Kingdom’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), marking a historic milestone as the first European nation to join this significant Indo-Pacific trading bloc. This development represents a substantial step toward enhancing multilateral trade cooperation and underscores the UK’s commitment to strengthening economic ties in the Indo-Pacific region. The inclusion of a prominent European economy like the UK will bolster the CPTPP’s global significance and create new opportunities for trade diversification. By granting access to a market of over 500 million people and representing approximately 15% of global GDP, this partnership is poised to drive innovation, foster competitive markets, and spur economic growth. This development also emphasizes the need for the global community to collectively address the challenge of Chinese trade dominance. The CPTPP has long been regarded as a strategic bulwark against such influence in the region. Red Lantern Analytica urges all other nations to consider joining the CPTPP which remains focused on safeguarding fair trade practices, economic sovereignty, and overall trade stability in the world. As geopolitical dynamics evolve, protecting democratic values and ensuring equitable access to global markets must remain central priorities. We believe that this development is a significant stride toward a balanced global trade architecture, and we encourage further collective actions that promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Trump’s Second Term and US-China Relations: A Comprehensive Analysis
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYDECEMBER 13, 2024
54

Trump’s Second Term and US-China Relations: A Comprehensive Analysis

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election marks a pivotal moment for U.S.-China relations. Building on the foundations of his first administration’s policies, Trump’s approach to China is expected to be even more confrontational and unpredictable. The implications of his leadership, combined with his policy proposals and the appointment of Senator David Perdue as the Special Envoy to China, signal a turbulent path ahead for one of the most consequential bilateral relationships in the world. Perdue’s Role as Special Envoy to China David Perdue’s nomination as Special Envoy to China underscores Trump’s commitment to a hardline stance against Beijing. Known for his “anti-China” rhetoric during his Senate tenure, Perdue has advocated for strengthening U.S. naval capabilities to counter threats from China. His background in business leadership, coupled with his staunch opposition to Chinese influence, positions him as a key figure in shaping US’ policy toward Beijing. Perdue’s role will extend beyond trade negotiations, encompassing complex issues such as Human rights violations, Taiwan independence, Technological Warfare, and China’s support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict. China’s initial response to Perdue’s appointment has been cautious but conciliatory. Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu expressed willingness to engage in dialogue and cooperation while managing differences. However, the history of strained interactions between the two nations suggests that Perdue’s tenure will be fraught with challenges. Economic Tensions: Tariffs and Trade Wars Trade will remain the central issue in U.S.-China relations under Trump’s second term. The president-elect has already threatened sweeping tariffs: a 25% tax on goods from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. These measures are designed to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking but carry significant economic implications for U.S.-China trade. The proposed tariffs risk exacerbating tensions and could lead to a full-fledged trade war, reminiscent of Trump’s first term when tariffs were imposed on over $360 billion worth of Chinese products. While these measures brought Beijing to the negotiating table, the promised benefits, such as increased Chinese purchases of American goods, were largely unrealized. Instead, American consumers faced higher prices on essential goods, and businesses were compelled to diversify supply chains away from China. Trump’s plans to revoke China’s most-favored-nation (MFN) status and impose blanket tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods could further strain relations. The administration’s proposed four-year plan to phase out imports of critical goods from China—including electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals—aims to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese manufacturing. However, these policies may provoke retaliatory measures from Beijing, disrupting global supply chains and creating uncertainty for American businesses. Technology, Espionage, and National Security Scientific and technological rivalry also contribute to U.S.-China tensions. Trump’s administration has previously accused China of unfair practices such as forced technology transfer and corporate espionage. The president-elect has pledged to expand counter-espionage efforts, potentially reviving the controversial “China Initiative,” which targeted Chinese researchers and academics in the U.S. Moreover, Trump plans to tighten regulations on Chinese investments in critical infrastructure, including energy, technology, and telecommunications. His administration’s blacklist of Chinese companies, such as Huawei and ZTE, is likely to grow, further limiting China’s access to American technology. Visa restrictions on Chinese students and researchers could also be expanded, heightening academic and technological collaboration barriers. These measures reflect broader bipartisan concerns about China’s military advancements and the risks posed by U.S. reliance on Chinese imports for critical technologies. While these policies aim to protect national security, they could stifle innovation and escalate tensions between the two nations. Diplomatic Relations: Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific Taiwan will remain a critical flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Trump’s ambiguous stance on Taiwan’s security and his suggestion that Taiwan should pay for its defense introduce uncertainty into U.S. commitments. While Trump has threatened steep tariffs in response to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, his reluctance to articulate a clear military strategy complicates Beijing’s ability to predict U.S. actions. During his first term, Trump deepened security ties with Taiwan, challenging Beijing’s claims over the self-ruled democracy. His second term is likely to see continued U.S. naval presence in the South China Sea, a key area of strategic competition. However, Trump’s isolationist tendencies, including criticism of NATO and scepticism toward foreign military aid, could weaken multilateral organizations. China’s Perspective and Countermeasures China has reacted to Trump’s election with measured caution. President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of stable U.S.-China relations, calling for cooperation to benefit both nations. However, Beijing has prepared for potential conflicts by bolstering its toolkit of countermeasures, including anti-dumping probes, export controls on key technologies, and retaliatory tariffs. Recent Chinese regulations, such as the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law and new export control measures, reflect Beijing’s efforts to safeguard national security and counter U.S. policies. These actions underscore the fragility of the bilateral relationship and the potential for further deterioration. The Five Nations Railway Corridor is another ambitious project of China that would connect China with Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Iran, thereby creating a Western-proof connectivity. Another instance of China retaliating to the new President’s hardline anti-China stance by stopping the export of critical minerals to the US. The day after Washington’s new restriction on China’s chip industry, China stepped up trade hostilities by banning exports to the United States of vital minerals with extensive military uses, such as gallium, germanium, and antimony. In the most recent escalation of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies ahead of President-elect Donald Trump taking office next month, the curbs reinforce enforcement of existing limits on critical minerals exports that Beijing started implementing last year but only apply to the U.S. market. While germanium is also utilised in solar cells, fibre optic cables, and infrared technology, gallium, and germanium are utilised in semiconductors. Bullets and other weapons include antimony, and the greatest component by volume in EV batteries is graphite. These retaliations unveil the lowest points in US-China relations. Business Implications: Supply Chains and Market Volatility Trump’s policies will likely increase supply chain disruptions and market volatility, impacting businesses reliant on U.S.-China trade. Many American companies have

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Navigating the Digital Frontier: The Role of Virtual Diplomacy in Global Affairs
COMMENTARIESDECEMBER 13, 2024
55

Navigating the Digital Frontier: The Role of Virtual Diplomacy in Global Affairs

In the 21st century, growing technological innovation has impacted international diplomacy. Digital platforms for diplomatic communication and negotiation are known as virtual diplomacy. This virtual diplomacy has caused a major change in conventional diplomatic methods, providing various ways to increase global interaction to ensure better communication between nation- states. Virtual Diplomacy and Its Effects on International Relations Advances in technology over the 21st century have transformed a wide scope of global interaction, especially international diplomacy. Virtual diplomacy, which uses social media, video conferencing, and digital platforms for diplomatic communication and negotiation, is becoming more and more important. This has brought new opportunities for global interaction and reshaped traditional diplomatic practices with new challenges demanding adaptation by states and international actors. This paper discusses virtual diplomacy’s development, advantages, difficulties, and its general influence on the discipline of international relations (IR). The Evolution of Virtual Diplomacy Traditionally, diplomacy has depended on face-to-face contacts, official correspondence, and personal relations among diplomats. The digital revolution, coupled with advancements in communication technology, has significantly altered this dynamic. The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic marked a turning point in promoting virtual diplomacy, as travel restrictions and social distancing led governments and international organizations to rely on digital platforms to conduct high-level discussions. Major events such as the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits were held virtually, demonstrating the potential of virtual diplomacy to hold international engagement during crises. Social media platforms such as X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook have also become tools for states to share information, manage public diplomacy, and communicate directly with global audiences. Benefits Virtual diplomacy reduces the obstacles of taking part in international discourse. The small and less-resourced states can now be more active in international discussions without incurring the high costs of traveling and large diplomatic missions. The virtual platforms also include diverse stakeholders, such as non-governmental organizations, civil society, and academia; making these discussions more inclusive. Digital media can be a great tool for instant communication during emergencies or even when negotiating a pressing matter. Virtual diplomacy, for example, has been a central factor in international responses to COVID-19, where instant communication has been critical. Virtual diplomacy reduces the expenses needed for major meetings, which are mostly related to travel, lodging, and other security precautions. This has special advantages for international bodies as well as resource-deficit states. Virtual diplomacy also contributes to sustainable practices by minimizing travel and resources used at physical meetings, which means reducing the carbon footprints of international engagements on these relationships and improving environmental health. Virtual diplomacy has made transparency more effective by opening some of the engagements to the public. Live speeches and discussions allow them to witness and interact with diplomatic processes that give way to greater accountability. Challenges Reliance on digital platforms in sensitive negotiations raises cybersecurity risks. Cyberattacks, espionage, and data breaches can compromise the confidentiality and integrity of diplomatic communications. Traditional diplomacy has often relied on personal rapport and non-verbal communication which is difficult in a virtual discourse. Relationship development and the resolution of sensitive issues are hampered by the lack of casual conversations over coffee or dinner tables. Again, not all nations have equal access to high-quality technology and internet infrastructure. This digital divide can exacerbate inequalities in international diplomacy, sidelining voices from less technologically advanced nations, technical glitches, connectivity issues, and platform limitations can disrupt discussions, particularly in high-stakes negotiations. Moreover, overreliance on virtual platforms may reduce the effectiveness of diplomacy in certain contexts. Virtual interactions make it challenging to verify the authenticity of participants or documents, thus leading to misinformation or mistrust in negotiations. How Does It Impact International Relations Virtual diplomacy has considerably transformed the practice of international relations into power dynamics, new forms of engagement, and even the use of innovative tools for diplomacy, providing easier access to democratizing diplomacy: by allowing smaller states and non-state actors to form alliances, which in turn lessens the hegemony of established superpowers. Virtual platforms have improved multilateralism through continuous and inclusive interactions by various actors. Organizations like the United Nations and the World Health Organization have utilized these tools for coordination on global issues such as climate change, health, and development. Digital diplomacy, through social media, has given states the ability to shape narratives, engage with people overseas, and counter disinformation. The use of Platform X for carrying out diplomacy for crisis management and policy announcements serves as an example of this. However, the nature of digital platforms raises concerns about sovereignty, jurisdiction, and the regulation of cross-border data flows, thereby complicating international relations. In conflict resolution, virtual diplomacy has helped reduce the logistical barriers and enable remote dialogue, although its limitation lies in building trust and dealing with deep-seated grievances. For instance, Maldives launched an Online Embassy to stay connected with the world in 2007. Conclusion Virtual diplomacy is a new approach to the practice of international relations, bringing along new opportunities for engagement but not without several challenges. It has a significant global impact, especially when it comes to multilateralism, affordability, and accessibility. To realize its full potential, however, prominent issues like cybersecurity, the digital divide, and the absence of personal relationships must be taken into account. As the world becomes more connected by technology, virtual diplomacy will continue to play a major role in international relations and thus, require adaptability and innovation in diplomatic practice. While embracing the potential of virtual diplomacy along with mitigating its challenges, states and international actors can harness the full prospects of virtual diplomacy in meeting global challenges and building a more inclusive and collaborative international system. Author: Aaishni Dhamija, Intern, Red Lantern Analytica

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Statement on the Humanitarian Crisis in Syria
MEDIA COVERAGEDECEMBER 9, 2024
56

Statement on the Humanitarian Crisis in Syria

The recent developments in Syria mark a pivotal moment in the nation’s history, as the capital, Damascus, witnesses profound change after years of conflict. While this transition signifies the end of a prolonged era of suffering for many, it also underscores the urgent need to address the vast humanitarian crisis that continues to devastate the Syrian people. Over the past 13 years, Syria has endured immense hardship. Hundreds of thousands have lost their lives, millions have been displaced, and countless families remain in dire need of assistance. The collapse of basic infrastructure, limited access to healthcare, and the destruction of homes have left a lasting impact on communities across the country. As the situation evolves, the international community must prioritize humanitarian aid and support for those affected by this enduring conflict. Efforts should focus on ensuring safe and unhindered access for relief organizations, providing food, medical care, and shelter to the displaced, and fostering a pathway to stability and recovery. We urge all nations, humanitarian organizations, and stakeholders to come together in a spirit of unity and compassion. The Syrian people deserve the chance to rebuild their lives in dignity and peace. This is not just a call to action but a moral imperative to stand with those who have suffered the most. Let us remain vigilant, committed, and focused on alleviating the suffering of millions while supporting a peaceful and inclusive future for Syria.

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Red Lantern Analytica Condemns Aggressive Territorial Claims of the PRC by Unilateral Renaming of islands and reefs in the South China Sea
MEDIA COVERAGENOVEMBER 12, 2024
57

Red Lantern Analytica Condemns Aggressive Territorial Claims of the PRC by Unilateral Renaming of islands and reefs in the South China Sea

Red Lantern Analytica deplores People’s Republic of China’s announcement of renaming of various islands and reefs in the South China Sea by it’s Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Civil Affairs. The PRC has also released the so-called map of territorial baselines around the Scarborough Shoal. This is in continuation with the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) unilateral attempts to claim the entirety of South China Sea. After the PRC government released a new so-called national map last year that demarcated its unlawful claim to the South China Sea by vague dash lines, this is an extension of CCP’s constant actions to solidify its superfluous assertions. It’s clear that the PRC has published the names of places in the South China Sea as a move against the Philippines’ “Maritime Areas Act” and the “Archipelago and Sea Lanes Act”. However, PRC maintains an innocuous image by stating that the renaming is “a national effort to standardize the management of place names” including spots that “have existed for hundreds of years,” thereby pretending to be a victim rather than the aggressor. Such a move of unilaterally naming places not only violates the territorial sovereignty and integrity of states but is also violative of international law. Feeding on CCP’s hegemonic ambitions, such acts are culpable for regional instability as they are inadvertently forced on other countries. Red Lantern Analytica vehemently condemns the published names in this so-called map, of some islands and reefs in South China and strongly opposes the PRC tactics of militarizing the islands of South China Sea.

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Donald Trump is back as the U.S. President – The Questions to Ask
COMMENTARIESNOVEMBER 10, 2024
58

Donald Trump is back as the U.S. President – The Questions to Ask

Donald Trump’s astonishingly gravity defying comeback has invoked a lot of questions. The outgoing presidency leaves behind a complex web of unresolved disputes and much room for Trump to reshape US foreign policy. Trump’s first presidency is being used as a marker for his forthcoming presidency or to say the least to analyse what the world can expect. Trump’s non-theological image in the political spectrum leaves little room for predictable prophecies before he takes over office. The ‘liberal’ debate surrounding Donald Trump’s transactional approach towards European security has emboldened. In the past Trump raised questions about why American taxpayers should go on subsidizing the security of wealthy European countries that free ride on US protection. That further elicits questions that if Europe will contribute more towards its collective defense or Trump’s presidency will revive uncertainty over the future of NATO, which he threatened to quit during his first term in the White House. Unlike the previous term, Trump’s current tenure stands to gain support from Big Tech firms who sought to rebuild bridges with tech and business friendly Trump after facing significant regulatory probes and anti-trust threats as a part of crackdown by Biden’s administration. The bigger question is will Trump’s friendly ties with Elon Musk or the business lobbies impact his big tariff barriers set for China where some of the American firms have invested heavily. Trump’s return to presidency is expected to determine the fate of wars. Benjamin Netanyahu was among the first few leaders to congratulate Trump on his win. It is being perceived that Donald Trump’s win might be seen as a deterrent reducing the likelihood of major incidents, as Iran’s leadership fears increased pressure and sanctions. Trump who forged a close relationship with Israel when previously in office has expressed criticism of Netanyahu’s wartime leadership and has called for a timely end to the conflict. Netanyahu, in his congratulatory message stressed ‘your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel & America’ indicating Israel’s expectation to secure greater US support in its security policy. Hamas simultaneously issued a statement urging US President elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration to ‘make stop the war’ in Gaza a priority. Another major challenge for the Trump presidency right now is to find a peaceful resolution to end the Ukraine war. In the lead up to the election, Trump repeatedly said he could end the war within 24 hours. Trump’s two successive telephone calls before (in July 2024) and after the election (co attended by Elon Musk) raises two major questions – First, How far Trump will fulfil his pledge to “achieve just peace in Ukraine”. Second, what role Elon Musk will play in US foreign policy after Trump formally joins office. Meanwhile Russia maintained a flexible position not giving any clear answer about dispute resolution in Ukraine in the wake of Trump’s return to power. Putin exclaimed Trump’s comments “to help end the Ukrainian crisis…deserves attention at least”. The real challenge for Trump even if he pushes through swift talks on Ukraine will be to broker a peace deal acceptable to both sides who have fought and resisted long enough to not agree to a ‘peace deal only based on sheer commitment to ‘peace, stability, and prosperity’. Moreover, any deal less favorable to Ukraine might give China a chance to drive a wedge between America and its treaty allies in Europe and Asia, telling them that American promises are worth nothing. Further as an added advantage China can sell it as an American template to Taiwan that can’t be trusted. The scale of American strategic commitment to Taiwan under Trump is under watch. During the Presidential campaign Trump asserted that Taiwan should pay Americans to defend it and grumbled that the island’s world class semiconductor industry “took all of our chip business”. Whether Trump would follow a hardline posture towards China resonating with his first presidency is yet to be seen and understood. During his last presidency the US presided over a raft of hawkish policies waging a mega trade war that pitted the world’s two biggest economies against each other. During the campaign, Trump promised to impose tariffs of 60% on all Chinese imports, which could affect $500bn worth of goods trade. Another important front that is expected to draw renewed attention from Trump is South Asia. Trump during his recent interviews has repeatedly referred to Prime Narendra Modi as his ‘good friend’. While there is optimism about further strengthening India -US strategic partnership there are concerns about fine tuning ‘tariff’ negotiations in the domain of their bilateral ties. Meanwhile, emboldened trends of supply chain diversification under Trump might create more opportunities for India. Further Trump’s statement shortly before the elections about the protection of religious minorities in Bangladesh in the wake of domestic political upheaval has opened possibilities about his plausible interest in taking a closer look at the internal political developments in Pakistan. Trump’s return to power has pushed the world to prepare for a ‘new world order’. In Washington, it is often said personnel is policy. To a large extent who gets to team up within the Trump-Vance circle will determine the direction US foreign policy takes here onwards. While America has chosen ‘America First’ for itself it will be interesting to see how ‘America First’ reshapes the world for better. Author: Angana Guha Roy, Visiting Fellow, Red lantern Analytica

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Statement Welcoming former UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s statement on India’s Inclusion in the UNSC
MEDIA COVERAGEOCTOBER 24, 2024
59

Statement Welcoming former UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s statement on India’s Inclusion in the UNSC

Red Lantern Analytica heartily welcomes the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron’s support and advocacy for India’s permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council. Mr. David Cameron expressed his belief in the “Indian Century” way back during this term of PM office in 2010. The former UK PM also believes that India is credible enough to mediate the Russia- Ukraine war. He further added that India, being the largest democracy and likely to be the largest economy in this century, must be assured of a permanent seat. He rightly remarked that,“A Permanent Seat on the Security Council should be India’s Right”. The question of including India in the UNSC permanent member list has garnered complete support from four permanent members as of now. The inclusion of India would be a step towards making the UNSC a more inclusive, just and representative body. China, due to its complex relationships with most of the Asian countries, is unable to play the role of a representative of the Asian countries. So, India, being a responsible and a democratic nation with regional compatibility, alternatively can emerge as the voice of the Global South and the developing world. Now that the question of India’s permanent seat rises again, this opportunity should not be missed once more!

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Statement Welcoming the opening of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre (TECC) in Mumbai
MEDIA COVERAGEOCTOBER 21, 2024
60

Statement Welcoming the opening of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre (TECC) in Mumbai

Red Lantern Analytica extends a warm welcome and sincere gratitude to Taiwan for opening their third office of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre (TECC) in Mumbai, India. It is a step to further bolster India-Taiwan relations and improve bilateral trade, technological, and cultural ties which began in 1995. Trade between India and Taiwan amounted to $10.1 billion as of the fiscal year ending in March 2024, with both ways of trade amounting to more than $ 8 billion in 2023, thereby making India its 12th largest export market. This opening occurs amidst a joint venture of Taiwan’s Power Chip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation and India’s Tata Electronics to manufacture semiconductors in Gujarat. This is a way of reinforcing Taiwan’s “New Southbound Policy” and India’s “Act East Policy”. India and Taiwan’s collaboration in trade, investment, education, technology, and tourism shows their unfailing ties. The opening of the new office of TECC in Mumbai further boosts investment opportunities and deepens bilateral ties. The recent lodging of Chinese diplomatic protest with India over the newly established office of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre (TECC) of Taiwan in Mumbai is uncalled for since the deepening of ties between any two countries includes the establishment of such representative offices for each other. It’s high time for a stronger India-Taiwan Relationship as this also reflects India’s unwavering support for Taiwanese cause. RLA is in solidarity with the people of Taiwan and condemns any provocative Chinese comments involving India-Taiwan relations. Also, we would urge the world to engage more with TECC as they are the diplomatic voice of the free people of Taiwan.

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
The Need for UNSC Reforms
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYOCTOBER 17, 2024
61

The Need for UNSC Reforms

Amidst the growing global conflict, particularly between Ukraine-Russia and the Middle East crisis involving the Arab nations and Israel, calls for more equaitable representation of the UNSC have increased even though it has been on the agenda of the UN General Assembly since 1979 in order to increase the Council’s legitimacy and effectiveness in shaping the global world order. At the G4 Summit, which took place in Septemeber 2024, the ministers of the four nations underlined the same need for expansion of the UN Security Council. The ministers of the Group of Four (G4) nations, during the “Summit of Future” reiterated their stance for urgent reforms of the UN to “better reflect contemporary geopolitical realities” and thus become fit for the present and the future. An year before, in November 2023, Dennis Francis, the President of the UNGA also highlighted the need for structural reforms in the Security Council at the Assembly’s annual debate assessing the UN forum for peace and security. The UN Premier was unambiguous in stating that the UNSC was “dangerously falling short” of its mandate as the primary custodian for the maintenance of international peace and security. He also emphasized the need for reforms to make the UNSC more relevant as follows: “Violence and war continue to spread in regions across the world, while the United Nations seems paralyzed due largely to the divisions in the Security Council. Absent structural reform, its performance and legitimacy will inevitably continue to suffer – and so too, the credibility and relevance of the UN itself.” Similarly, grasping the vein of the failure of UNSC in bringing about a stalemate in the Israel-Palestine crisis because of the failure of passing effective resolutions since the crisis heightened, other UN Member States also underscored the need for reform as “urgent than ever”. Jamal Fares Alrowaiei, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Bahrain (speaking on behalf of the Arab nations), stated in no uncertain terms that the credibility of the UNSC was in danger because of the use of the veto power in an arbitrary manner. He also urged member states to ensure conflict prevention efforts were more “representative, transparent, neutral and credible”. Antje Leendertse, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Germany (speaking on behalf of the Group of Four) said that the Council was not as “effective as needs be” in addressing contemporary challenges because of its current composition. She underpinned the skewed composition of the Council as the major reason why it had been “unable to live up to expectations in addressing some of the most serious threats to international peace and security in a timely and effective manner”. On the other hand, India has also consistently held the same position over the Council’s reforms and called for a “reformed multilateralism” especially during times of crisis such as in the present day. For example, during the fallout of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee asserted that “until the UN Security Council is reformed and restructured, its decisions cannot reflect truly the collective will of the community of nations.” Add the latest statements made by PM and FM History of the UNSC The UNSC is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations with the mantle of ensuring international peace and security, approving changes to the UN Charter and also admission of new members to the General Assembly. It was created after World War 2 to address the failings of the League of Nations in maintaining world peace. When it was established in 1945, the five victorious parties, China, US, UK, France and Russia were considered to be “better placed” to ensure international peace and security. However, considering the increase in membership from 51 to 193 states in the UN, many people judge the Security Council to be unrepresentative of the global order, especially in the light of the geopolitical changes that have taken place since decolonization and the end of the Cold War. The UN Charter was formulated by the victors of the World War in their own national interests while assigning the permanent seats and the veto power amongst themselves. Moreover, any reform to the Security Council would require an amendment to the Charter which itself can only be brought about when adopted by two-thirds of the members of the General Assembly and ratified by two-thirds of the members of the UN, including all the permanent members of the Security Council. The only significant reform that took place in the Security Council occurred in 1965 when the non-permanent membership was increased from 6 to 10 nations. In his “Agenda for Peace” published in 1992 the then Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali underlined his motivation to restructure the composition and arguably “anachronistic procedures” of the UN organ to recognize the changed world. Since then, the discrepancy between the strcuture of the UNSC and the global reality have become even more pronounced with politicians, scholars and diplomats arguing for a more representative and egalitarian playing field in the Council. Since 1992, Japan, Germany, India and Brazil (also known as the G4 nations) have mutually suppoted each other’s bid in the Security Council, the former two being the second and third largest contributor to the UN respectively while the latter two are the most powerful nations within their regional groups and major players within their regions. On the other hand, their rivals, also known as the United for Consensus (Italy, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Colombia, South Korea, Turkey and others) group have opposed their candidature as they are the economic competitors and regional rivals of the G4. They have instead prompted for semi-permanent seats or the expansion of the number of temporary seats. India’s bid consolidated by economic and diplomatic rise India’s bid to the UNSC is largely driven by its rise as and economic and military power. It is a founding member of the United Nations. Two years before independence in 1947 (under the British Raj) India joined the UN as one

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
REPORTAUGUST 20, 2024
62

China’s Economic Espionage around the world

Chinese economic espionage is only one aspect of China’s larger strategic endeavour to obtain the technological expertise required to support its economic expansion and disrupt the present geopolitical order. Over the past few years, there have been many cases of Chinese economic espionage around the world, especially in intellectual property (IP) theft, trade secrets, military technologies and cyber espionage. This is not only done by businesses and individuals but is mostly sponsored by the State authorities. China’s efforts not only provide support to its local industry and improve its economic competitiveness, but they also enable China to demonstrate its influence on the global stage. The Chinese government employs various tactics, including leveraging businesses, institutions, and individuals, to obtain proprietary information from around the globe, especially in the United States and Europe. These methods range from acquiring companies with valuable intellectual property to coercing joint ventures with Chinese firms, to outright theft and cyberattacks. While cyberattacks can be challenging to link directly to the Chinese government, digital footprints have been traced back to hacker groups with ties to Beijing. Additionally, China exploits its diaspora in the West, particularly Chinese students, faculty, and employees, by recruiting spies and emphasizing allegiance to China regardless of nationality. This approach blurs the line between loyalty to one’s homeland and sharing sensitive information. In recent years, China has been recruiting those it considers expat nationals through “thousand talents” programs, which identify experts in American schools and industries to help fill specific gaps in knowledge back home. Numerous instances over the past decade involve individuals associated with Chinese entities attempting to steal trade secrets across various industries, from agriculture to high-tech products like locomotives and semiconductors. Such cases underscore China’s ongoing efforts to acquire proprietary information from the United States and other Western countries. On the other hand, domestically China has detained foreign businesspeople on espionage charges, citing National security reasons. Foreign companies operating in China have complained about unclear laws on corporate espionage.

A
adminAnalyst
arrow_outward
The U.S. Actions and Diplomacy against the Brewing Tensions between the U.S. and the PRC
REPORTAUGUST 17, 2024
63

The U.S. Actions and Diplomacy against the Brewing Tensions between the U.S. and the PRC

The relationship between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been characterized by tensions primarily revolving around trade, technology, and human rights. The U.S. implemented tariffs on Chinese imports and placed restrictions on certain technologies, aiming to address perceived unfair trade practices and cybersecurity threats. Criticisms of PRC’s human rights record, particularly concerning Xinjiang and Hong Kong, resulted in the imposition of sanctions and diplomatic pressures. Furthermore, the U.S. heightened its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region as a strategic response to the PRC’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. Despite these challenges, diplomatic engagements persisted, and efforts were underway to strengthen alliances in the region. The dynamic nature of this relationship requires continuous monitoring of the latest developments. Many events happened in 2023 that we analyze here. The U.S. – Taiwan relations and the Indo-Pacific region In April, the U.S. and Taiwan decided to resume in-person discussions on co-producing weapons which sparked tensions with the PRC. In response, PRC warned that weapon production in Taiwan could escalate tensions. The focus of the Taiwan-U.S. Defense Industry Forum is on integrating Taiwan’s industrial capabilities, defence cooperation, and co-production possibilities. On 11 April, Taiwan and the U.S. signed two deals worth nearly $420 million for the maintenance of fighter aircraft operated by Taiwan. The agreements involved a $323 million parts contract running through March 2028 and a smaller deal covering nonstandard parts and aviation materials through June 2027. These agreements reflected Taiwan’s reliance on the U.S. for air defence amid increasing military pressure from the PRC. Later in September, during a visit to Taiwan, the U.S. congressional delegation stated that the U.S. would respond resolutely if Taiwan was attacked and pledged to address the $19 billion backlog in Taiwan’s defence purchases from the U.S. which was the first-ever U.S. military transfer to Taiwan under a program usually reserved for assistance to sovereign, independent states. However, the U.S. law requires Washington to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, treating any threats as matters of grave concern, but it remains ambiguous on whether the U.S. would commit forces in response to an attack. Earlier in July, the U.S. had approved $345 million in military aid for Taiwan. Then in October, the U.S. expressed skepticism about PRC’s willingness to launch a blockade of Taiwan in any attempt to take the island by force. Ely Ratner, the Defense Department’s assistant secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs, highlighted the potential high cost and risk for Beijing in such an action. He also emphasized the global economic consequences and suggested that it could rally the international community against PRC. In December, the U.S. and Taiwan were exploring ways to expand Taiwan’s participation in the United Nations system and other international forums. Both countries had held routine consultations, emphasizing the importance of working closely with like-minded partners who share concerns about excluding Taiwan from the international community. This came after the PRC objected to including Taiwan in the United Nations climate talks. Discussions between the U.S. and Taiwan focused on opportunities for Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Assembly, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and other multilateral organizations. In the Indo-Pacific region, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Tonga, New Zealand, and Australia, to demonstrate the Biden administration’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific region amid concerns about PRC’s growing influence. The U.S. opened an embassy in Tonga. This expansion aimed to enhance the U.S. presence and influence to maintain stability and counterbalance PRC’s growing activities. In August, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan established a tripartite security regime during their trilateral summit at Camp David. The summit was anticipated to strengthen security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, addressing concerns related to North Korean threats and PRC’s strategic challenges. The move was part of the U.S. strategy to consolidate regional alliances to counterbalance PRC’s influence. The trilateral collaboration would focus on intelligence sharing, missile defence, joint military exercises, cybersecurity, early warning cooperation, and enhanced nuclear deterrence.

A
adminAnalyst
arrow_outward
REPORTAUGUST 17, 2024
64

China Digest (January 2024)

To safeguard our national security, it is crucial to stay informed about the domestic and geopolitical events happening in and around China. Here is a news digest summarizing key developments in China for January. Chinese Economy: According to reports, China’s economic growth rate in 2023 marked one of the lowest levels in decades, highlighting the significant impact of a property-sector collapse and weaker consumer confidence despite the lifting of all COVID-19 restrictions.[1] In an odd turn of events, several prominent commentaries by economists and journalists in China have disappeared from the internet in recent weeks. This development has sparked concerns that Beijing is intensifying its censorship efforts as it endeavours to portray a positive image amid economic challenges.[2] China’s indebted real estate developer Evergrande was forced into liquidation by a Hong Kong court after they were unable to provide a feasible restructuring plan. The ruling comes amid ongoing financial woes and an investigation into its founder. Due to concerns about the company’s potential effects on the industry and China’s economy, trading in Evergrande’s shares was halted.[3] US-China Dynamics: Chinese-made drones pose a national security threat to the US due to laws compelling companies to provide access to user data to Chinese authorities, according to a memo by the FBI and CISA. This risk includes potential exposure of vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure and intellectual property to Chinese intelligence services, as well as the possibility of cyber-attacks. The memo advises against using Chinese drones and suggests secure alternatives from US manufacturers. Congressional actions, including bans on the procurement of Chinese drones by federal agencies, highlight concerns over Chinese drone usage. Lawmakers advocate for a complete ban on Chinese drones to protect US interests.[4] There were reports that a Dutch manufacturer, ASML, a key player in the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain, had reportedly cancelled shipments of hi-tech microchip machinery to China following pressure from the US government. The Dutch government revoked the licenses that prevented the shipment of three chip-making machines to China. The cancellation of the shipments comes amidst US efforts to limit China’s semiconductor capabilities. This move follows previous restrictions placed on ASML’s deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines last year under pressure from the US government.[5] Threat over Taiwan: According to reports, high-altitude balloons believed to be from China resurfaced over Taiwan, reminiscent of a previous incident that strained US-China relations. The timing was critical as it happened when Taiwan was going for the presidential election which has the potential to impact U.S.-China dynamics.[6] Elsewhere, an error caused panic in the public in Taiwan. A satellite launch in China triggered an emergency alert in Taiwan, days before its presidential election, causing alarm and confusion due to an erroneous English translation. The bilingual air raid alert, sent to every mobile phone, inaccurately translated ‘satellite’ to ‘missile’. The message warned of a missile flyover in Taiwan airspace. The alert was later clarified, and Taiwan’s defence ministry apologized for the oversight in the English translation.[7] According to reports, China is employing a diplomatic offensive in response to the election of Lai Ching-te as the next president of Taiwan. The campaign may involve propaganda, threats, and infiltration to bring the island under Chinese control without a military invasion. Despite tensions, military confrontation is not imminent, with China prioritizing its relations with the US and internal military reforms. Experts expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, including economic and trade sanctions and cognitive warfare, to influence the island’s politics and policies.[8] South China Sea Conflict: Vietnam and the Philippines signed two memoranda of understanding (MOUs) on cooperation in the South China Sea (SCS). The MOUs covered incident prevention and management in the SCS, as well as maritime cooperation. The agreements aim to enhance coordination on maritime issues bilaterally, within ASEAN, and with other dialogue partners. The MOU on maritime cooperation seeks to strengthen understanding, mutual trust, and confidence through the development of a Joint Coast Guard Committee and a hotline communications mechanism. Analysts view the agreements as a step towards breaking China’s dominance peacefully, although there are potential risks of conflict if China perceives its interests are being undermined.[9] A Chinese coast guard ship, known as ‘The Monster’ for its size, has been patrolling near Vietnam’s oil exploration blocks at Vanguard Bank in the South China Sea since early December, raising concerns about territorial tensions. The ship has been conducting an ‘intrusive patrol’ in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), where Vietnam has oil exploration projects. The ship has been operating with its AIS (Automatic Information System) turned off, violating international maritime safety conventions. The situation adds to longstanding tensions in the South China Sea, with Vanguard Bank being a known flashpoint between Vietnam and China.[10]

A
adminAnalyst
arrow_outward
REPORTAUGUST 17, 2024
65

Chinese Dubious Economic Activities around the Globe

Economic measures have been used as a tactic to exert influence over policies and politics since early times. In the present world, economic activities are wielded as weapons through sanctions, tariffs, debt diplomacy, protectionist approaches, etc. These are employed to gain geopolitical interests, manipulate policies and trade and shape contemporary global dynamics. One country that is infamous for employing unfair trade practices is China. Through unfair trade measures like dumping and intellectual property theft, market access limitations, and debt diplomacy, China uses economic measures as weapons. It gains economic advantages through the use of subsidies and state-owned firms. It also uses investments to exercise influence, inciting geopolitical crises and upending international conventions. China’s such practices have raised concerns among many economic hubs like the European Union (EU), Indo-Pacific, Africa, United States (US), etc. China has 60 per cent of global manufacturing capacity, 31 per cent of global production and 14 per cent of global consumption. Its extensive manufacturing surplus capacity, which is fueled by significant state expenditure and subsidies, is escalating tensions between its state-led economic model and Western market-oriented capitalism. Foreign governments, particularly those in the EU, are urging China to relax its industrial restrictions and focus more on its domestic market. However, China’s ambitious ‘Made in China 2025’ strategy seeks to dominate vital industries worldwide, exacerbating trade tensions.[1] Here, we look at recent reports on China’s dubious economic activity over the last few months. In Europe The European Union has announced proposals to bolster the bloc’s economic security, including safeguards to prevent critical technology from straying into the hands of geopolitical adversaries such as China.[2] According to news reports in early December 2023, European countries, especially Germany and France, have taken steps to scrutinize and restrict Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), affecting the technology and infrastructure industries. Germany is planning to tighten investment screening procedures to prevent Chinese companies from accessing industries deemed critical to national security. This decision comes amid concerns expressed about China’s growing influence in Germany. The drop in Chinese FDI in Europe in 2022, along with an increase in greenfield investments in industries such as electric vehicles, indicates the shifting landscape for Chinese businesses in the region.[3] Moreover, on 6 December 2023, China rejected the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s criticism of the EU’s trade deficit with China, claiming that export limitations to China are partially to blame for the imbalance. Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, said that the EU shouldn’t be restricting high-tech exports when it hopes to boost exports to China.[4] On the other hand, the European solar manufacturing industry is facing significant challenges due to increased competition from Chinese manufacturers. The rush to adopt solar power in Europe has led to a surge in demand for solar panels, but the majority of these panels are being supplied by Chinese companies that benefit from government subsidies. This has resulted in a decline in European solar manufacturing firms, as they struggle to compete on cost.[5] In late January 2024, there were reports that Meyer Burger, a Swiss solar panel manufacturer was suffering against Chinese competition and warned that without government backing, its German production unit could close. Gunter Erfurt, the CEO, accused Chinese manufacturers of deliberately lowering costs through targeted subsidies. This situation highlights Chinese overcapacity flooding the EU market resulting in trade disputes.[6] In Indo-Pacific According to reports in early February, the US deployed three aircraft carriers to the western Pacific to step up measures to deter China and North Korea. This decision, despite the concerns in West Asia, demonstrates the commitment to the Indo-Pacific. The US Navy and Japan conducted joint training exercises in the Philippine Sea, involving the USS Carl Vinson, USS Theodore Roosevelt, and Japanese helicopter destroyer JS Ise. The deployment is the first time in two years that three US carriers have come near the first island chain. The deployment aims to strengthen deterrence and reassure allies amid regional concerns, notably around Taiwan and North Korea. Moreover, the US continues to prioritize trilateral collaboration with Japan and South Korea for addressing regional security problems.[7] Furthermore, the US has announced that it will resume its Peace Corps program in Palau in 2025. The move is in line with recent efforts to enhance cooperation and engagement with Pacific island nations to counter growing Chinese influence in the region.[8] Additionally, Richard Verma, the Deputy Secretary of State for the US, warned Papua New Guinea (PNG) that any security assurance with Beijing has costs and repercussions and advised PNG to decline China’s offer of a possible security pact. This came in response to an earlier announcement from PNG’s Foreign Minister, Justin Tkachenko, that PNG is in early discussions with China regarding a security deal, which includes assistance in police force training, equipment, and surveillance technology. The US and Australia view the Pacific as their sphere of influence and are working to discourage Pacific island nations from forming security ties with China, especially after China signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands in 2022.[9]

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
REPORTAUGUST 17, 2024
66

Broken Promises of China to the World

“Broken promises fracture the foundation of trust, leaving behind shards of disappointment that echo through the corridors of relationships and international affairs.” The idea of trust is fundamental to the field of international relations and is essential to promoting global cooperation. Trust is simply the reliance and faith placed in another person, the trustee, with the expectation that one’s interests would be protected, even in the face of possible exploitation. It acts as the cornerstone of diplomatic ties and alliances, affecting the dynamics of cooperation on the international stage.[1] To manage the complexity of geopolitical interactions, the delicate interplay of international affairs primarily relies on building and preserving trust. However, despite its importance in international relations, there are evident cases where promises made were not kept, violating this founding principle. The fragility of trust becomes apparent when certain countries choose to break the expectations and faith put in them for a variety of reasons. In recent times the synonym for such instances has been The People’s Republic of China (PRC). Many countries, time and again, have expressed their concerns about PRC’s actions and policies in geopolitics which has created an impression that it doesn’t uphold the norms and values of trust and promises in the international system. These concerns include a variety of areas like Human Rights challenges, commercial practices, territorial disputes and Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). When the PRC joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, the international rules-based system substantially helped the Chinese economy, but the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) continued disapproval of the notion that the rule of law should take precedence over the Party’s role in governing the state has made it impossible for the PRC to follow through on its WTO obligations and make the transition to a market economy. Hence, even after almost two decades, it has not fulfilled many of the trade-liberalizing promises it made to persuade countries to accept its membership.[2] Contrary to benefiting from the international rules-based system, PRC’s economic and trade policies are increasingly at odds with fundamental principles of global trade. Key principles such as national treatment, non-discrimination, and adherence to rules-governed, market-based trade, as outlined in the theory of comparative advantage, have faced challenges due to the PRC’s evolving economic strategies. Rather than aligning with these global trade principles, the PRC has embraced what is termed ‘innovation mercantilism’.[3] The PRC is enacting laws that actually impede free and fair competition. These consist of actions like intimidating technology transfer, manufacturing and export subsidies, and even currency manipulation. Such measures are intended to provide domestic businesses an advantage over their overseas rivals. Rather than waning, these methods have been stronger recently as the PRC actively pursues absolute advantages in many high-tech areas. PRC’s persistent disregard for WTO standards presents a significant risk to the international innovation framework.[4] The PRC poses a threat to the fundamental basis of the international trade system as long as it persists in pursuing policies that put national benefit ahead of conformity to international standards. To join WTO, the PRC had to agree on the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), which provides protections for patents, copyrights, trademarks, service marks, industrial designs, digital content, and other intangible property.[5] However, the PRC companies have many times been accused of stealing IPR from US companies and most of these complaints stressed that the CCP directs these thefts.[6] In October 2023, the intelligence chiefs of Five Eyes also warned about the theft of IPR related to technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other trade secrets. The theft is not limited to government and military secrets but extends to critical infrastructure, academic research at universities, and startup companies.[7] According to a CNBC report in 2019, one in five North American-based corporations on the CNBC Global CFO Council says the PRC companies have stolen their intellectual property in 2018 only.[8]

A
adminAnalyst
arrow_outward
REPORTAUGUST 17, 2024
67

Chinese Naval Drills

China’s Naval activities in the South China Sea (SCS) and the Indian Ocean have raised concerns in the region. China has been conducting naval drills, including setting up navigation restriction zones in disputed SCS. These drills are not limited to Southeast Asian Waters, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has increased its activities in the Indian Ocean with the intention to dominate the regional geopolitics. In September 2023, according to leaked US Navy intelligence, China’s shipbuilding capacity vastly surpasses that of the United States, with a capacity 232 times greater. The leaked briefing slide, titled ‘PLAN vs. USN Naval Force Laydown’, indicated that China’s shipyards can handle over 23.2 million tons, compared to the US capacity of less than 100,000 tons. This becomes a concern as China has been increasing its naval footprint throughout the world, focusing on securing access to ports and terminals and setting up bases abroad. China operates commercial ports in many countries like Gabon and Equatorial Guinea and has a naval base in Djibouti which poses a potential threat in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). And now China is looking to increase its presence through a naval base on the Western African coast towards the Atlantic Ocean. This revelation underscores China’s rapid expansion in naval capabilities, with projections suggesting a fleet of 440 ships by 2030. Such activities of China have implications for the regional stability and security. Here, we try to analyze a few of such activities and events that made news in the past few months.1. Increasing Domestic Capabilities• Chinese President Xi Jinping appointed Adm. Dong Jun as China’s defence minister, marking the first time a naval officer assumed this role. Dong’s extensive experience, including leadership roles in the PLAN and operational assignments in the Chinese military’s Eastern and Southern theatre commands, provides him with an unprecedented background that underscores Xi’s priorities, with Taiwan being of utmost importance.• China’s PLAN hosted the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS) Workshop 2024 in Nanjing, on 16 January, focusing on the revision and updating of documents including the WPNS Business Charter, the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea and the Disaster Response Guide, as well as future WPNS activities. Delegates from 23 WPNS member states including China, Australia, Canada, Chile, France, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Russia

A
adminAnalyst
arrow_outward
REPORTAUGUST 17, 2024
68

RLA Report on Ongoing Myanmar Civil War: Implications for India and China

Prepared by:Lakshmi Kusuma KothaAngel ChindaliaAnkansha PalHarini T RKhushboo Zaveri Table of Contents1. Introduction2. Rebel Factions & their Operations3. The PRC’s Involvement And Investments4. PRC’s Influence in Myanmar Affecting Indian Interests5. India’s Strategic Options6. Conclusion Abbreviations:1. PRC: People’s Republic of China2. NLD: National League for Democracy3. AA: Arakan Army4. USDP: Union Solidarity & Development Party5. NUG: National Unity Government6. PDF: People’s Defence Force7. PaKhaPha/PDT: People’s Defense Teams8. TNLA: Ta’ang National Liberation Army9. MNDAA: Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army10. KIA: Kachin Independence Army11. UWSA: United Wa State Army12. CAN: Chin National Army13. CNF: Chin National Front14. CDF: Chinland Defence Force15. KNPP: Karenni National Progressive Party16. KPDF: Karenni People’s Defence Force17. KNDF: Karenni National Defence Force18. BRI: Belt and Road Initiative19. EAO: Ethnic Armed Organisation20. ULFA: United Liberation Front of Asom21. NSCN: National Socialist Council of Nagaland22. PLA-M: People’s Liberation Army of Manipur23. ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations24. NSCN-K: National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang List of Figures:Fig. 1: Chinese undertaken projects in MyanmarFig. 2: Current Situation of civil unrest in MyanmarFig. 3: Events per month from March 2021 to April 2024 List of TablesTable 1: Projects undertaken by India in Myanmar 1. INTRODUCTION Myanmar is bordered by India to the Northwest, Tibet (occupied by the People’s Republic of China) in the north and the PRC in the northeast, Laos to the east, Thailand to the Southeast, and the Bay of Bengal to the South and Bangladesh to the West. It shares land borders with five key Asian countries making it a significant player in Asian regional geopolitics especially in Southeast Asia. It also has access to vital maritime trade routes, which makes its location interesting for global geo-economics. This advantageous position has the potential to influence regional trade dynamics and international economic strategies. Since gaining independence from British colonial rule in 1948, Myanmar has faced substantial political and economic challenges. The country experienced extended periods of instability, marked by military coups and authoritarian rule, which have hindered its development. This turbulence is particularly evident in the ongoing civil war, which has caused significant human suffering and disrupted progress.Demographically, the majority of the people in Myanmar speak Burmese and are known for diverse ethnicities in the region. Officially there are 135 ethnic groups in Myanmar, the major seven groups are the Arakan, Chin, Kachin, Karen (Kayin), Karenni (Kayah), Mon and Shan. The majority group is called the Bamars, while the others are the minority groups. Notably, over time, the objectives of these ethnic groups have also evolved from being an independent state to self-government, limited autonomy, equal rights, fair distribution of the state’s natural resource income, peace and growth of their state, preservation of their language, culture and religion, among other aspects. Myanmar has experienced various ethnic tensions since its independence. The Rohingya Crisis and the fight between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Tatmadaw (military of Myanmar) have dominated the last few decades of internal conflict in Myanmar, with the focus being on the Rakhine State. But the worldwide focus on the “ethnic cleansing” and forced relocation of the Rohingya has overtaken the latter. These diverse ethnic groups have a long-standing troubled history with the military junta of Myanmar.Considering its strategic location in Southeast Asia, Myanmar is vulnerable to greater international political dynamics. Myanmar’s relevance in the region is further crucial for its rich oil, gas and mineral resources. In recent years, it has invested and tapped on the cross-

A
adminAnalyst
arrow_outward
Statement on Beijing’s Pressure Tactics towards Foreign Lawmakers attending IPAC Taiwan Summit 2024 in Taipei
MEDIA COVERAGEJULY 28, 2024
69

Statement on Beijing’s Pressure Tactics towards Foreign Lawmakers attending IPAC Taiwan Summit 2024 in Taipei

It has come to public notice that People’s Republic of China (PRC) diplomats are trying to bully foreign diplomats, pressurising them not to attend a high- level summit focused on China. The PRC uses its ‘coercive tactics’ to harass the foreign lawmakers in order to force them from not attending the IPAC Taiwan Summit 2024 in Taipei. IPAC Taiwan Summit 2024 is the annual parliamentarian summit organised by the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), an international organisation bringing together legislators from many countries, with a stated objective to uphold the rules-based system. This Summit gathers elected representatives from more than 20 countries making it the largest delegation of foreign parliament members ever to attend Taiwan. As this Summit brings in the global attention and also results in key outcomes, the PRC has begun to exert its undue influence. It has started intimidating the attendees participating in the Summit. Lawmakers from Bolivia, Colombia, Slovakia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and one other Asian country have got messages, calls and even diktats not to attend the IPAC Taiwan Summit 2024 from the PRC diplomats either directly or at times indirectly. The PRC’s tactics are autocratic because these messages impose absence. These egregious attempts to interfere into the domestic affairs of other countries, and also isolate Taiwan at the International level by the PRC exposes it’s hegemonic intentions. PRC’s hegemonic toolkit includes- plans to cut off the diplomatic partners of Taiwan, sending warnings to would be attendees who engage with Taiwan, dissuading countries from having economic exchanges with Taiwan, and punishing countries by sanctioning them if they establish relations with Taipei. The PRC also often seeks re-affirmations from countries to adhere to its so-called ‘One-China’ policy. However, this time, it has only bolstered the tenacity for the legislators to partake in the IPAC Taiwan Summit 2024 discussions in Taipei. RLA strongly criticises PRC’s campaign to dissuade representatives and confirm their absence at the gatherings in Taiwan. It’s high-time for the PRC to accept the reality that Taiwan is a democratic country which cannot be undermined by such Chinese Communist Party (CCP) directed influence operations. The PRC’s interference in the domestic affairs of other countries is also unfortunate and we urge the world to stay united against forces acting against democracy.

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
Statement Welcoming the U.S. Legislation ‘Resolve Tibet Act’ supporting the Rights of Tibetans
MEDIA COVERAGEJULY 14, 2024
70

Statement Welcoming the U.S. Legislation ‘Resolve Tibet Act’ supporting the Rights of Tibetans

Red Lantern Analytica extends a warm welcome and offers sincere gratitude to the United States for passing the legislation ‘Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act’ also known as the Resolve Tibet Act. This legislation by the U.S. represents a pivotal moment in advocating for the rights and autonomy of the Tibetan people. This act has strengthened the U.S. support for Tibet and fostered discussions between the PRC and His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama aimed to peacefully resolve disputes regarding status and governance. The Act also empowers the U.S. to counter PRC’s propagation of disinformation about the history of Tibet, the Tibetan people, and Tibetan institutions, including that of the Dalai Lama by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This legislation advances support to Tibetan people to preserve their distinct religious, cultural, linguistic and historical identity, which has been systematically suppressed by the CCP’s policies. The U.S. promotes direct dialogue without preconditions between the PRC and the Dalai Lama, his representatives or democratically elected leaders of the Tibetan community to achieve a negotiated settlement on Tibet. As an organisation dedicated to fostering peaceful resolutions and upholding human rights, we extend our support for the Resolve Tibet Act’s objective to empower the Tibetan people to preserve their distinct identity. The Resolve Tibet Act is a significant move that aligns with international principles of human rights and self-determination. We believe that sustained international pressure and advocacy are crucial in compelling the PRC to engage in meaningful negotiations, ensuring a fair and just resolution for the Tibetan people. RLA stands in solidarity with the Tibetan people and commends the U.S. for its unwavering commitment to justice, human rights and self-determination. We urge the international community to support this landmark legislation and join the call for a Free Tibet.

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
The Interwoven Histories and Cultures of Tibet and India
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYJULY 6, 2024
71

The Interwoven Histories and Cultures of Tibet and India

Tibet and India share a tapestry of cultural, religious, and linguistic connections that span centuries. This intricate relationship has been shaped by the spread of Buddhism, historical exchanges, and the enduring bonds formed through pilgrimage and exile. Buddhism, originating in India, has profoundly influenced Tibet, where it evolved into a distinctive form known as Tibetan Buddhism. While Tibetan Buddhism developed its unique characteristics, it still retains significant similarities with its Indian roots. The history of Tibet extends beyond its recorded beginnings with Nyatri Tsenpo in 127 B.C., revealing a rich cultural heritage rooted in the pre-Buddhist civilization of the Kingdom of Shangshung. Located in Western Tibet, near Mount Kailash (known as Mt Tise), Shangshung flourished with a sophisticated culture linked to the indigenous Bon tradition. The cultural and spiritual ties between India and Tibet, especially through Buddhism, are profound and enduring. Despite political changes and challenges, these connections have shaped the religious and cultural landscapes of both regions, highlighting the Himalayas as a bridge rather than a barrier between them. The ongoing cultural relations between Tibet and India exemplify a unique historical and spiritual bond that continues to thrive. The historical relations between India and Tibet are deeply intertwined with legends and significant events that shaped Tibetan culture and identity. From early times, Tibetans revered India as the ‘Land of the Gods’, highlighting the profound cultural and spiritual connections between the two regions. The recorded history of Tibet begins with the Yarlung Dynasty, ruling from the 5th to the 9th century CE. A notable legend dates back to 127 B.C. when Nyatri Tsenpo was enthroned as the first king of Tibet in the Yarlung Valley. According to myth, Nyatri Tsenpo descended from the sky using a ‘sky-rope’ and was believed to have originated from India, hailing from a royal family connected to the Buddha’s lineage. This mythic narrative underscores the mythological ties and divine origins attributed to early Tibetan rulers. Buddhism formally arrived in Tibet during the reign of Thori Nyatsen in the 5th century A.D. Legend has it that a casket containing the Mantra of Avalokiteshvara fell from the sky onto Yubulakhang, the royal palace, marking the auspicious introduction of Buddhism. Although the king couldn’t decipher the scripts within, he preserved them as sacred relics for future generations, symbolizing the divine transmission of Buddhist teachings to Tibet. Moreover, the Tibetan Empire, succeeding the Yarlung Dynasty from the 7th to mid-9th century, solidified Buddhism’s role. Indian Buddhist masters like Bhiksu Santaraksita, Kamalasila and Padmasambhava were pivotal, bringing Indian practices such as Sanskrit usage and the creation of intricate mandalas to Tibet. This period saw the fusion of Tibetan Buddhism with indigenous traditions like Bon and shamanism, forming a distinctive spiritual path emphasizing compassion and wisdom. Furthermore, known as the ‘Bodhisattva Kings’, the Yarlung rulers, notably Songtsen Gampo (618-650 CE), the 33rd king of the Yarlung Dynasty unified Tibet and expanded its borders. He strategically married princesses from China and Nepal. These alliances were instrumental in the adoption and spread of Buddhism within Tibet. Despite initial reservations by the Chinese and Nepalese rulers about Songtsen Gampo’s status, these marriages facilitated cultural exchanges that profoundly influenced Tibetan politics and religion. Under Songtsen Gampo’s leadership, Tibet expanded into a formidable empire, stretching from Chang’an (modern Xian) in the East to the Pamirs and Samarkand in the West, with the Himalayas marking its southern border. This period marked Tibet’s zenith as a military and cultural power in Central Asia. Moreover, under his reign, Tibet embraced Indian cultural elements like Buddhism, Sanskrit and literature. Songtsen Gampo sponsored the translation of Buddhist scriptures into Tibetan and built iconic temples such as the Jokhang Temple in Lhasa. Also, King Songtsen Gampo’s legacy includes a pivotal contribution to Tibetan culture through the introduction of a script and the translation of Buddhist scriptures. His minister, Thonmi Sambhota, journeyed to India with sixteen students to study Buddhism and Sanskrit. Upon their return, they devised the Tibetan script, still in use today, drawing from North Indian Nagari and Central Indian Sharda scripts. His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama mentioned during his 1956 visit to India that Thonmi Sambhota developed the script based on Nagari and Sharda scripts. Beyond the script, Thonmi Sambhota imported Sanskrit grammar used in Indian viharas, facilitating precise translations of Buddhist scriptures into Tibetan. This adaptation ensured the accurate rendering of the sacred sutras, including the Kanjur, a collection of Buddha’s teachings spanning 108 volumes. Moreover, under King Songtsen Gampo’s rule, significant Buddhist texts were translated, with the king himself actively engaging in scholarship. For the first time, Buddhist precepts became part of Tibetan law, underscoring the integration of Buddhism into Tibetan governance and culture. Additionally, the adoption of Buddhism as the state religion during Songtsen Gampo’s reign was a watershed moment in Tibetan history, cementing cultural ties with India and laying the foundation for centuries of religious and philosophical exchange. The shift of the capital from Yarlung to Lhasa and the construction of structures like the Potala Palace symbolized Tibet’s evolving identity and its deepening spiritual ties with Indian Buddhist traditions. The historical interactions between India and Tibet, spanning from mythological origins to religious transformations, underscore the enduring cultural and spiritual bond that has shaped the histories of both. Thus, King Songtsen Gampo’s reign marked a crucial era in Tibetan history, characterized by cultural exchange with India and the foundational development of Tibetan Buddhism. Himalayas as a connecting point, not a barrier The great Himalayan range has always been a cultural continuum, porous not only to trade but also to religious, political, and cultural exchanges. India has always regarded these mountains as profoundly special. The earliest reference to the Himalayas is in the Rig Veda, written around 1500 B.C., which states that the Himalayas symbolize all mountains. The Kena Upanishad, written around 1000 B.C., speaks of Uma, the daughter of the Himalayas – Umam haimavatim. According to mythology, Uma revealed the mystic idealism of the Upanishads to the gods, an imaginative expression of the historical fact

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward
The New Age of Semiconductors
COMMENTARIESJUNE 26, 2024
72

The New Age of Semiconductors

Economics of the Semiconductor Industry in India and the Geopolitical Implications of It INTRODUCTION Gone are the days when oil was the key driver of international relations and its attainment as the major area of competition among nations. The focus has now largely shifted towards semiconductors, projected to play a significant role in evolving the social and economic landscape of global politics. This shift has largely occurred for two main reasons. Firstly, the exploration of alternate energy options reduces the dependence on oil. Secondly, semiconductors have quickly emerged as a vital component of several key industries. These semiconductors retain some properties of the energy sector, of being concentrated in certain geographical areas due to material and talent availability. This leads to intense competition among nation-states to attain self-reliance in their production and gain dominance over their adversaries. This competition is only bound to get even more intense. Semiconductors are the centre of the modern technological landscape, their usage raging from a myriad of industries, from automobiles to aerospace and even the healthcare system. Its innovation has paved the way for a technologically advanced and interconnected world, which further impacts economic growth. Analysts observe India to become a key player in the semiconductor industry, given its talent pool and government support for initiatives aiding its development. The National Electronics Policy (NEP) aims to establish India as a hub for Electronics System Design and Manufacturing (ESDM), including semiconductors. (Akhilesh Tuteja, 2024) The Indian government has already blown the whistle to progress the country from the status of “chip taker” to that of “chip maker”. Semiconductors are an important aspect of India’s national security and its importance can no longer be overlooked. The chip is essential for every important activity in the country, from the economy to the military domain. Technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, blockchain and big data analytics are a reality solely due to the existence of advanced semiconductor chips. The UN goal of alleviating the effects of climate change by transitioning to green technology is also made possible through this specialised chip. (Lt Col Akshat Upadhyay, 2022) The manufacturing process of this chip becomes a gruesome task because of its complexity and the vast investment and infrastructure required. Therefore, only a handful of countries are currently dominating the supply chain, making it extremely vulnerable to vicissitudes and instability. The noteworthy contributions of semiconductors and the competition for its procurement have made many countries resort to export controls and prohibition of sale and transfer. In such a scenario, it becomes important for India to indigenize the production process to carve out a way to achieve “Atmanirbharta” or Self-reliance. (Konark Bhandari, 2020) SHORTAGE OF SEMICONDUCTORS The past few years have struggled with a declining production of these semiconductors, leading to their shortage. Given the significance of these chips in critical industries, any shortage would adversely impact not only the technology companies involved in its manufacturing but also the countries that aim to deploy these technologies. The shortage could be ascribed to several reasons. Firstly, the COVID-19 pandemic saw a decline in its supply as manufacturers shifted towards those industries that saw an increase in demand during the period. There has been a significant fall since prior to the pandemic and bringing the supply back to that level would be a pressing challenge. For instance, the momentary disruption of the supply of these chips harmed the automobile industry the most, with their sales taking a nosedive. Secondly, several natural disasters that have raked the world, have had disastrous consequences in destroying the supply hubs of these semiconductors which further contributed to the shortage. A massive earthquake in Japan in February 2021 led to a substantial constriction in output. A major fire in Japan at one of the biggest factories of Renesas reduced the ability of this prominent chip supplier to fulfil orders to automakers worldwide. Lastly, a drought in Taiwan prompted it to cut water supply to a major chip-making hub, Taichung, as it directed manufacturers to conserve water that is normally used for industrial purposes. (Konark Bhandari, 2020) The most significant reason, however, was the export control bans introduced by the Trump administration in 2019. These bans aimed to forbid the transfer of certain semiconductor technologies to certain Chinese enterprises. These measures were further tightened in 2020. The Chinese, looking to dominate the industry stockpiled these chips before these provisions could take effect, further worsening the shortage. An instance of this could be Chinese entities such as Huawei stockpiling goods and ordering several months, if not years, worth of semiconductors for products such as Xilinx’s field-programmable gate arrays that Huawei uses for its base station technology. At such a critical time, when all countries seek to build self-sustenance in the supply chains, there are certain risks associated with this move. The major risk is the formation of inward-looking supply chains or chains that are not interoperable. This would negatively impact the standard setting for these chips and make it another layer of competition among nation-states. Currently, the quest for dominance is being fought among the us, Europe and China. IMPACT OF US-CHINA TRADE WAR Following the May 2020 border clash in Galwan Valley, India has taken a number of measures towards China. Chinese firms had already made significant inroads into India’s electronics market. For the first time, India has tied the resolution of its long-standing border issue with China to the development of other elements of their relationship. This has come at the expense of economic relationships. In April 2020, India announced plans to prevent ‘opportunistic acquisitions of Indian companies’ by entities from countries sharing a land border. India seems more open to a partnership that is multilateral and involves several actors. The external minister was quoted saying that the altering dynamics of the US-China relations would provide opportunities that could be exploited to advance India’s national interests. However, he also mentioned that India was interested in growing with others and not separately. This highlighted partnerships with countries possessing similar values and

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
arrow_outward