Red Lantern Analytica Foundation
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RLA Report on Ongoing Myanmar Civil War: Implications for India and China

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Prepared by:
Lakshmi Kusuma Kotha
Angel Chindalia
Ankansha Pal
Harini T R
Khushboo Zaveri

Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Rebel Factions & their Operations
3. The PRC’s Involvement And Investments
4. PRC’s Influence in Myanmar Affecting Indian Interests
5. India’s Strategic Options
6. Conclusion

Abbreviations:
1. PRC: People’s Republic of China
2. NLD: National League for Democracy
3. AA: Arakan Army
4. USDP: Union Solidarity & Development Party
5. NUG: National Unity Government
6. PDF: People’s Defence Force
7. PaKhaPha/PDT: People’s Defense Teams
8. TNLA: Ta’ang National Liberation Army
9. MNDAA: Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
10. KIA: Kachin Independence Army
11. UWSA: United Wa State Army
12. CAN: Chin National Army
13. CNF: Chin National Front
14. CDF: Chinland Defence Force
15. KNPP: Karenni National Progressive Party
16. KPDF: Karenni People’s Defence Force
17. KNDF: Karenni National Defence Force
18. BRI: Belt and Road Initiative
19. EAO: Ethnic Armed Organisation
20. ULFA: United Liberation Front of Asom
21. NSCN: National Socialist Council of Nagaland
22. PLA-M: People’s Liberation Army of Manipur
23. ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations
24. NSCN-K: National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang

List of Figures:
Fig. 1: Chinese undertaken projects in Myanmar
Fig. 2: Current Situation of civil unrest in Myanmar
Fig. 3: Events per month from March 2021 to April 2024

List of Tables
Table 1: Projects undertaken by India in Myanmar

1. INTRODUCTION

Myanmar is bordered by India to the Northwest, Tibet (occupied by the People’s Republic of China) in the north and the PRC in the northeast, Laos to the east, Thailand to the Southeast, and the Bay of Bengal to the South and Bangladesh to the West. It shares land borders with five key Asian countries making it a significant player in Asian regional geopolitics especially in Southeast Asia. It also has access to vital maritime trade routes, which makes its location interesting for global geo-economics. This advantageous position has the potential to influence regional trade dynamics and international economic strategies. Since gaining independence from British colonial rule in 1948, Myanmar has faced substantial political and economic challenges. The country experienced extended periods of instability, marked by military coups and authoritarian rule, which have hindered its development. This turbulence is particularly evident in the ongoing civil war, which has caused significant human suffering and disrupted progress.
Demographically, the majority of the people in Myanmar speak Burmese and are known for diverse ethnicities in the region. Officially there are 135 ethnic groups in Myanmar, the major seven groups are the Arakan, Chin, Kachin, Karen (Kayin), Karenni (Kayah), Mon and Shan. The majority group is called the Bamars, while the others are the minority groups. Notably, over time, the objectives of these ethnic groups have also evolved from being an independent state to self-government, limited autonomy, equal rights, fair distribution of the state’s natural resource income, peace and growth of their state, preservation of their language, culture and religion, among other aspects. Myanmar has experienced various ethnic tensions since its independence. The Rohingya Crisis and the fight between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Tatmadaw (military of Myanmar) have dominated the last few decades of internal conflict in Myanmar, with the focus being on the Rakhine State. But the worldwide focus on the “ethnic cleansing” and forced relocation of the Rohingya has overtaken the latter. These diverse ethnic groups have a long-standing troubled history with the military junta of Myanmar.
Considering its strategic location in Southeast Asia, Myanmar is vulnerable to greater international political dynamics. Myanmar’s relevance in the region is further crucial for its rich oil, gas and mineral resources. In recent years, it has invested and tapped on the cross-

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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