Understanding The Syrian Civil War – Past and Present

Syria and Lebanon, also referred to as the Levant States (1923–1946), were initially governed under a mandate system established by the erstwhile League of Nations after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and in the aftermath of the First World War. Under the mandate, the governing country sought to act as a trustee until the people were considered “eligible” to self-govern; at this point, the mandate would terminate, and a sovereign nation would be born. By the end of the war in 1918, by the Sykes-Picot Agreement, Britain held Iraq and the southern part of Ottoman Syria, including Israel, Palestine, and Transjordan regions, while France controlled the rest of Syria, which comprised Lebanon, Alexandretta (a province of Turkey), and portions of Cilicia. Even though after the fall of the Ottomans in Syria, Faisal, son of Hussein bin Ali, King of Hejaz (leading the Arab Revolt), established the first post-war Arab government in Damascus in October 1918 and the British forces withdrew on 26 November 1919, the Arab government had to face France, which demanded full control of Syria under the Treaty of Sevres. Also, the outcome was despite the conclusions of the American King-Crane Commission, which confirmed the opposition of the majority of Syrians to the mandate and the Balfour Declaration as per its remit of the 36 major cities, 300 villages, and petitions numbering more than 3000. Later, General Gouraud (France) issued an ultimatum to Faisal with the choice of either a submission or an abdication. Faisal, realizing the weak balance of power, decided to cooperate. Youssef al-Azmeh, the Syrian minister of war, however, decided to revolt, following which the Franco-Syrian War was fought in which the French decimated the Arab forces and Azmeh died on the battlefield.

On 29 September 1923, France was assigned the mandate to govern Syria by the League of Nations (part of the claim included the acknowledgment of France as the protector of minority Christians during the Ottoman Empire), and the administration of the region was carried out under a host of different governments and territories, including the Alawite State, the Jabal Druze State, the Mandatory Syrian Republic (1930–46), the State of Syria (1925–1930), and the Syrian Federation (1922–24).

Levant Crisis and Syrian Independence
Later, in 1936, the Franco-Syrian Treaty of Independence, also known as the Vienot Accords, was signed, which provided for Syrian independence. However, fearing that the French withdrawal from the mandated states would propel Nazi Germany to fill the vacuum, France continued to occupy Syria, whereupon riots broke out in the region, especially in Aleppo, and the fighting escalated between Syrian youths and French forces in Hama and Homs, resulting in more than 1000 Syrian deaths and countless homes being destroyed while the new president, Hashim al-Atassi, resigned.

When the news of the immense casualty loss reached the UK Prime Minister, Winston Churchill sent Charles de Gaulle a message: “In order to avoid a collision between British and French forces, we request you immediately order French troops to cease fire and withdraw to their barracks.” The order being ignored, Britain intervened with troops and tanks from the 31st Indian Armoured Division invading Syria from Transjordan and striking Damascus while cutting off communications of the French forces. Finally, at gunpoint, the French were forced to accept the safe return to their barracks.

Syria became fully independent on 17 April 1946, even as both the British and French forces withdrew from Syria and Lebanon, respectively. In October, both Syria and Lebanon were recognized as independent states and admitted as founding members of the United Nations.

Syrian Diplomatic Crisis of 1957
Between 18 August and October 1957, severe diplomatic confrontations broke out between Syria and the Soviet Union on the one hand and the United States and its allies along with the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), also known as the Baghdad Pact (Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and the United Kingdom). Apprehensiveness began when the Western governments accused the Syrian government presided over by Shukri al-Quwatli of making the appointment of Col. Afif al-Bizri as chief of staff of the Syrian Army, alleged to be a Soviet sympathizer, and other institutional changes in line with “Soviet understanding.” Thereafter, suspecting that a Soviet takeover had been organized in Damascus, the neighboring states of Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan started considering support for an Arab/Western military intervention to overthrow the Syrian government.
The then US Secretary of State, John Foster Dulles, described the situation as “totally unacceptable” and called for further efforts to prevent Syria from becoming a “Soviet satellite.” Under the advice of Dulles, President Dwight Eisenhower made some unclear statements on the events during a press conference while Syria responded with its press conference, stating that Syria was committed to a foreign policy doctrine called “positive neutralism,” which was in stark contrast with the “paternalism” of the Cold War superpowers.

A telegram from the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia to the State Department stated as follows – “Time approaching, if indeed not already arrived, when Syria will cease to be effectively an independent nation but will have been taken over as was Czechoslovakia in 1948 and made into a Soviet satellite having independence only in name and not in substance. We are also convinced that once the present group now in control of Damascus has consolidated its position in Syria, it will reach out in efforts to subvert surrounding countries, thus propagating the Communist virus and paving the way for control by elements subservient to Moscow.”

While Turkey was the only country to deploy thousands of troops along the Syrian border, Nikita Khrushchev, the first Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, threatened to launch missiles at Turkey if it would attack Syria, the United States intimidated the Soviet Union in case it would launch an assault on Turkey. Later, in October, following pressure from the United States, Turkey withdrew its forces from the Syrian border, and Khrushchev made a surprise visit to the Turkish embassy in Moscow, and the crisis ended.

Current Crisis and the Involvement of Foreign Actors (2011-Present)
As part of the wider Arab Spring protests, pro-democracy rallies and large-scale demonstrations broke down in Syria in March 2011 due to the mass discontent with the Baathist government, a vanguard party with a socialist revolutionary agenda with the ideology to promote and develop a unified Arab state. The protests were violently suppressed by security forces in deadly crackdowns ordered by former President Bashar al-Assad. That resulted in thousands of deaths and detentions which eventually turned into a full-blown civil war in 2012 with the formation of resistance militias across the country, transforming the Syrian revolution into an insurgency.

The war was fought on several fronts with the Syrian Arab Armed Forces representing the Assad government and the Syrian Arab Republic. In opposition stood the pro-democratic, nationalist opposition groups such as the Syrian National Army and Free Syrian Militias, along with the faction of the Syrian Salvation Government represented by a coalition of Sunni militias led by Tahrir al- Sham, along with the Arab majority force led by the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG) and other competing factions, including the branches of the jihadist organization of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
Meanwhile, several foreign countries, such as the United States, Iran, Turkey, and Russia, have been directly involved in the war in Syria. While Iran, Russia, and non-state actor Hezbollah have been supporting the Syrian Arab Republic, with Russia conducting ground operations and airstrikes since 2015, the United States has been conducting air and ground operations against the Islamic State and pro-Assad forces along with providing military and logistical support to factions such as the SDF and the Revolutionary Commando Army.

Turkey, on the other hand, has been occupying the northern portion of Syria and has fought the ISIS, SDF, and the Assad government even as fighting spilled over to neighboring Lebanon. Though Ankara has an officially neutral stance, Israel has exchanged fire and conducted repeated strikes against Iran and Hezbollah in western Syria. Iran has been a strategic ally of Syria and has provided considerable support, including technical support, combat troops, and more than 9 billion dollars in financial support for the Assad regime. The Syrian city of Zabadani is critically important to Iran because the city has served as an important base for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for supplying Hezbollah while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was vocally in favor of the Syrian government back in 2011. In October 2015, Iran signed the 2012 Geneva Communique, which provided the roadmap based on two rounds of Syria talks in Vienna, and after the meeting with Vladimir Putin in Tehran on 23 November 2015, Iran is said to have unified its stance on Syria with that of Russia. As of 2023, Iran holds more than 70 percent of its foreign military sites in Syria, including 55 military bases and 515 other military posts, the majority in Aleppo, Deir Ezzor, and the Damascus suburbs.

On the other hand, Russia has also been a strategic ally of Syria since 1956 and has been actively supplying the Syrian government with arms, training the Syrian soldiers to use Russian weapons, and helping them to repair and maintain Syrian weapons by sending military and technical advisors to Syria along with transporting hundreds of tons of banknotes by airplane. Russia also manned some of its anti-aircraft defenses with military personnel adorning the garb of military advisers back in December 2012. Russia also launched a direct military intervention in Syria consisting of airstrikes against ISIL, the Al-Nusra Front, and other enemies of the Syrian government.

However, Iran’s regional influence has receded through its “Axis of Resistance” (the strategic non- state militant actors), which suffered significant setbacks given the elimination of the supreme commander of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, on 27 September 2024, and the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, a pivotal figure in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, in January 2020, along with other key military personnel, while Hamas, along with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, has also been diminished in power after they attacked Israel and faces mounting pressures from Israel and the United States.

Amid a power vacuum in Syria, Israel is expected to be more assertive against Iran and its affiliated organizations in the region. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to build their diplomatic leverage in Syria by engaging and backing various factions to stymie the political aspirations of Turkey and Iran, other Sunni Arab groups such as ISIS could try to build their operational presence in the region. Turkey’s footprint in northern Syria is likely to continue to thwart Kurdish autonomy movements, with the US and other European nations likely to continue their diplomatic measures and exert pressure through coordinated military presence.

Authored By:
Gaurav Sharma ,
Guest Writer