ReportAUGUST 17, 2024

The U.S. Actions and Diplomacy against the Brewing Tensions between the U.S. and the PRC

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Directorate of Intelligence

The relationship between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been characterized by tensions primarily revolving around trade, technology, and human rights. The U.S. implemented tariffs on Chinese imports and placed restrictions on certain technologies, aiming to address perceived unfair trade practices and cybersecurity threats. Criticisms of PRC’s human rights record, particularly concerning Xinjiang and Hong Kong, resulted in the imposition of sanctions and diplomatic pressures. Furthermore, the U.S. heightened its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region as a strategic response to the PRC’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. Despite these challenges, diplomatic engagements persisted, and efforts were underway to strengthen alliances in the region. The dynamic nature of this relationship requires continuous monitoring of the latest developments. Many events happened in 2023 that we analyze here.

The U.S. – Taiwan relations and the Indo-Pacific region

In April, the U.S. and Taiwan decided to resume in-person discussions on co-producing weapons which sparked tensions with the PRC. In response, PRC warned that weapon production in Taiwan could escalate tensions. The focus of the Taiwan-U.S. Defense Industry Forum is on integrating Taiwan’s industrial capabilities, defence cooperation, and co-production possibilities. On 11 April, Taiwan and the U.S. signed two deals worth nearly $420 million for the maintenance of fighter aircraft operated by Taiwan. The agreements involved a $323 million parts contract running through March 2028 and a smaller deal covering nonstandard parts and aviation materials through June 2027. These agreements reflected Taiwan’s reliance on the U.S. for air defence amid increasing military pressure from the PRC.

Later in September, during a visit to Taiwan, the U.S. congressional delegation stated that the U.S. would respond resolutely if Taiwan was attacked and pledged to address the $19 billion backlog in Taiwan’s defence purchases from the U.S. which was the first-ever U.S. military transfer to Taiwan under a program usually reserved for assistance to sovereign, independent states. However, the U.S. law requires Washington to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, treating any threats as matters of grave concern, but it remains ambiguous on whether the U.S. would commit forces in response to an attack. Earlier in July, the U.S. had approved $345 million in military aid for Taiwan. Then in October, the U.S. expressed skepticism about PRC’s willingness to launch a blockade of Taiwan in any attempt to take the island by force. Ely Ratner, the Defense Department’s assistant secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs, highlighted the potential high cost and risk for Beijing in such an action. He also emphasized the global economic consequences and suggested that it could rally the international community against PRC.

In December, the U.S. and Taiwan were exploring ways to expand Taiwan’s participation in the United Nations system and other international forums. Both countries had held routine consultations, emphasizing the importance of working closely with like-minded partners who share concerns about excluding Taiwan from the international community. This came after the PRC objected to including Taiwan in the United Nations climate talks. Discussions between the U.S. and Taiwan focused on opportunities for Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Assembly, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and other multilateral organizations.

In the Indo-Pacific region, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Tonga, New Zealand, and Australia, to demonstrate the Biden administration’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific region amid concerns about PRC’s growing influence. The U.S. opened an embassy in Tonga. This expansion aimed to enhance the U.S. presence and influence to maintain stability and counterbalance PRC’s growing activities.

In August, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan established a tripartite security regime during their trilateral summit at Camp David. The summit was anticipated to strengthen security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, addressing concerns related to North Korean threats and PRC’s strategic challenges. The move was part of the U.S. strategy to consolidate regional alliances to counterbalance PRC’s influence. The trilateral collaboration would focus on intelligence sharing, missile defence, joint military exercises, cybersecurity, early warning cooperation, and enhanced nuclear deterrence.

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