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UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYAPRIL 19, 2024
97

India’s Strategic Need for Economic De-Risking from the PRC

Introduction The PRC is India’s second-largest trading partner, only falling behind the United States, with Indian imports from the PRC having set a new high of $136.2 Billion and the trade deficit rising by 21% in FY 2023 in comparison with FY 2022. Though the bilateral trade has surged, there are a lot of complications not just in terms of interdependence with the PRC but also in safeguarding the national security of India. In this article, the author has attempted to analyze the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as an indication of India’s need to diversify its trading partners. The article discusses India’s initial efforts in this regard, as well as how other countries can view India as a viable alternative in the global production and supply chain network. Therefore, to reduce the dependence on the PRC, there is often a debate between de-risk and de-couple adoption strategies from the PRC. However, the line of differentiation between decoupling and de-risking is still gray in reality. Let’s debunk the balance between de-risking and decoupling- Decoupling vs De-risking Decoupling refers to a complete economic separation, that is, entirely eliminating trade, investment and migration, between the two or more countries. It is an abrupt act of disentanglement that causes an exponential increase in the economic cost and further severs the diplomatic ties between the disentangled countries. On the other hand, de-risking is based on mitigating risks associated with economic engagement by diversifying the supply chain and production. As pointed out by the Director General of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, de-risking can also be viewed through the lens of the ‘re-globalization approach’[i] (deeper, more diversified, and deconcentrated international markets). This follows ‘interdependence without over-dependence’ to attain greater economic security along with safeguarding one’s strategic autonomy from a ‘systemic rival’ like the PRC which challenges the Western ecosystem from time to time. However, full-scale decoupling from the PRC is not possible in reality because the Indian economy and the PRC markets are highly interlinked and it will majorly lead to adverse effects in the global economy as these two Asian giants are pivotal for the global economy. Accordingly, diversification (de-risking) with a strategic preference for mitigating risks is the ideal and exclusive route rather than cutting off economic relations with a country. Steps Taken by Some Companies to De-risk from the PRC Some companies have implemented strategic measures to reduce their reliance on manufacturing in the PRC, including diversifying their supply chains and investing in alternative production facilities in other regions. These steps aim to mitigate geopolitical and economic risks while ensuring continuity in their operations. For instance, Foxconn, the Taiwanese Electronics Company, is a key supplier in Apple’s iPhone manufacturing operations and has significant manufacturing units located in the PRC. The Covid-19 added to the woes of the company with mistrust, miscommunication, lockdowns, large-scale labor unrest, security issues and severe logistical challenges. As the demand for iPhones increases worldwide and manufacturing centres are primarily in one country, the risks of excessive reliance on the PRC become apparent. This gave The company varied reasons to diversify its supply chains. Thus, Apple Inc. strategized to de-risk from the PRC which meant shifting its operations and diversifying its supply chains outside the PRC. One major reason after Covid-19 was ‘Fat tail risk’ i.e. a low-probability, high-impact event that can significantly disrupt the global order or cause widespread instability. These events are difficult to predict due to their rarity and often fall outside traditional risk assessments and this rarity can be often seen in authoritarian regimes. The Russia-Ukraine war was unexpected and uncertain for the global markets and it impacted many critical supply chains that were not even geographically connected. This highlights that authoritarian regimes can be highly dicey with their unanticipated events disrupting the political and business ecosystems. Another reason is the tensions between Taiwan and the PRC that prompted Apple Inc. to speed up its de-risking process. Apple Inc. sources 90% of Wafer production (ultra-specialized chip fabrication processes) from TMSC (Taiwan Manufacturing Semiconductor Company). According to Asia Nikkei (2022), Apple Inc. has asked Taiwan suppliers to label these components which constitute 50% of the global market supply as made in “Chinese Taipei” or “Taiwan, China” which suggests that Taiwan is a part of the PRC. On mentioning “Made in Taiwan” i.e., not complying with the PRC import rules then it can lead to delays, fines and even rejection of entire shipments under the rule. And Apple Inc.’s choice to deny Taiwan’s independent existence brought worldwide criticism. The third reason is that the PRC, in Sep 2023, ordered its government officials to discontinue working with Apple’s iPhones and were directed not to bring these devices into the offices due to cyber security concerns. In the same year, the PRC banned the usage of memory chips made by Micron citing the same reason. This move by the PRC led Micron’s net income of $8.68 billion in 2022 to convert to a net loss of $5.83 billion in FY 2023. Apple Inc. generates $74 billion in revenue from the PRC which is roughly 19% of its total revenue. However, the PRC’s uncertain decisions and the risk of such bans lingered over Apple Inc.’s goals due to which the company started de-risking gradually from the PRC. Thus, all these complexities led Apple Inc. to turn its head towards setting up new manufacturing capacities in Vietnam for the production of MacBooks, iPads, and the Apple Watch. It has been estimated that Vietnam will meet 40% of the United States’ capacity for these three products. Along with that Foxconn is making India a manufacturing hub by setting up units in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka to assemble iPhones and expects to expand its production to 20% – 25% in 2024. Hence, these companies have opted to pursue additional de-risking strategies as their sole pathway forward. Steps Taken by India to De-risk from the PRC Coming to India, India’s economic ties with the PRC in major strategic sectors such as electronics,

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYAPRIL 17, 2024
98

Interview on “Practical Application of Kautilya’s Principles in India’s Military and Political System”

Answers by: Commodore R S Vasan (Retd), DG, Chennai Centre for China Studies Could you elaborate on how India’s military and political personnel have practically applied Kautilya’s doctrines, such as Rajamandala, Saptanga theory, Saadgunya Niti, and Matsya-Nyaya, in contemporary contexts, especially in the last year? While for a long time, Kautilya’s teachings were overshadowed by the western thoughts and lack of interest and even ignorance in India’s past strategic culture, there seems to be a new awakening in the last few decades to study Kautilya’s Arthashastra and analyse how relevant these teachings are in the present day context. There are no doubts that each of the headings that you have mentioned form the framework of the strategic postulations in the treatise on statecraft which include politics, economy, governance, domestic and international relations, waging of war, managing peace and such like. I will very briefly touch up on the headings mentioned by you in terms of its applicability more specifically in the last few years under the Modi Government. The military on its part has started paying increasing attention to Kautilya and are evaluating the validity of concepts . The study of Kautilya has been institutionalised and there are more discussions and references today . More importantly, it is not that the prescriptions are blindly followed. These are brought up to current standards based on where we stand and that ensures that the responses are commensurate with present day challenges in our neighbourhood and in other parts of the world that impact India’s ascendency. Rajamandala Theory. While there is no Raja as, we have adopted a democratic form of government, the relevance of the elected leader and his actions decide on how India has progressed in the chosen form of self governance. The theory of one’s neighbour mostly being inimical and the neighbour’s neighbour being friendly has by and large stood the test of times as witnessed in history. When we look at the political geography, the smaller neighbours of India viewed India as the big brother meddling in their affairs and not encouraging them to prosper. However, the recent initiatives of SAGAR and neighbourhood first policies have challenged the view that your immediate neighbours are necessarily enemies. The implicit conclusion would be that there are ways in which our neighbours need to be managed knowing fully the challenges in a complex neighbourhood. Except for Pakistan and China with whom we have had adversarial relations, the other smaller neighbours have had to work their way in a competing environment of two big Asian neighbours and that has not been easy. Also in the Mandala, in many cases there are common borders between more than just two neighbours and that would require an analysis of how these shared borders shape the foreign policy of the concerned Government. For example, the tri junction between India, China and Bhutan who are all neighbours posed significant challenges during the Doklam crisis in 2017. This has made it imperative for India to work more closely with its long term ally Bhutan which does not have diplomatic relations with China. The happenings in the last fortnight or so clearly tells us how Bhutan has become very important for our own security. So the increased assistance of 10 crores and holding of hands of the small neighbour would pay rich dividends. Similar approach is adopted in nurturing our neighbourhood countries who are increasingly being wooed by China with investments and inducements. On the seven components of the state as per the saptanga theory, they include Swami( the Emperor), Amataya (the council of ministers), Janapada that defines the physical territory of a state, Durga (a Fort or fortified area for ensuring the sovereignty of our borders) , Kosha (or the treasury or the economic potential of the country), Danda (which is regulations enforced by justice or force) and Mitra (which is to identify friends and nurture such relations). All these would continue to be part of the nation’s governance in the modified form as required by a democratic nation. In simple terms, within the borders there needs to be visionary leadership to manage its borders, its people, and provide for the development by ensuring availability of funds both public and private. The leadership has to work to protect its long term interest by engaging with both big and small powers. The need to secure its interests both in its immediate neighbourhood and extended shores can hardly be reemphasised. Fortification of the borders today is not just deployment of troops but encompasses modern technologies and measures to ensure that there are no surprises. This demands innovative strategy and tactical procedures. The cyber domain is the most important domain when a nation is looking to secure its interests both on the battlefield and off the battlefield. The new disruptive technology would change the equations that can be game changers. The chip wars and the increased use of drones has made it evident that one has to be ahead of the competition and rehearse for contingencies . How do you perceive Kautilya’s Arthashastra influencing India’s military strategy and geopolitical decisions in the modern era? There was a time when there were uncharitable remarks by the west about the lack of strategic culture in India. However, the works of Dr. Shamashastry in the Oriental Research Institute in Mysore led to the discovery of Arthashastra which was printed in 1905 as a sanskrit edition. The English version saw the light in 1919 and researchers and analysts around the world were made aware of the rich work of Kautilya.The actions of the successive governments does indicate that there was progressive adoption of many prescriptions of Rajadharma . One could go to the extent of saying that some of these prescriptions and ethos are ingrained in the genes of Indian rulers and the handling of both domestic and foreign policies more so in the last few decades has stablised our growth and security in a complex global scenario. Can you provide specific examples from the past year

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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Narco-Arms Trafficking from Afghanistan
ASIAAPRIL 10, 2024
99

Narco-Arms Trafficking from Afghanistan

Abstract Arms and drug trafficking have long been associated with Afghanistan and have been intricately entwined with the country’s turbulent past. Arms smuggling in Afghanistan dates back to resistance against British colonial forces in the 19th century. Afghan tribes relied on clandestine networks to obtain weapons from neighbouring regions like Persia and Central Asia, crucial for their fight for independence. This tradition persisted into the 20th century, remaining significant despite Afghanistan’s independence from British Forces, due to its rugged terrain and porous borders facilitating clandestine activities. However, since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the US-Pakistan involvement in the war, arms smuggling further flourished, with war groups receiving weapons through Pakistan. Whereas, the scale of production of Opium was relatively small in Afghanistan before the Soviet invasion and there was not a well-established narco-smuggling network as is seen in later decades. However, in the 1960s and 1970s, the demand for Afghan drugs grew beyond regional markets of Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. The narcotics phenomenon peaked during the country’s civil war and became an infamous source of income for the group during the Taliban’s rule in 1996. Since then, Afghanistan has suffered from these two ominous phenomena. After 2001 and the US invasion of Afghanistan, several measures were taken to combat these phenomena, but the scope was so strong that despite the presence of the United States and NATO, it did not stop it at all. The United States spent 9 billion dollars in counternarcotic operations in Afghanistan since 2002. (HEARING, 2020) Now that the Taliban have once again come to power, the question has been on the minds of many experts: will drug and arms trafficking, which are important sources for the survival of terrorist groups in the region and the world, increase? Drugs trafficking As many experts argue that there is a deep and growing relationship between terrorism and drugs. In fact, in the cultivation of narcotics, large networks of trafficking and its refinement are the main sources of funding for the war economies of terrorist groups. For this reason, drug cultivation is common in countries where terrorism has deep roots and is prone to violence and extremism. Historically, the British East India Company monopolized the opium trade in Asia during the 18th century to fund its expansionist goals with tightly controlled production levels to maintain high prices. Facing competition from Turkey and Persia in the Chinese market, Britain increased opium cultivation in Bengal and Bihar. To meet demand, cultivation expanded to Afghanistan during British friendly Emir Abdur Rahman Khan’s rule (1880-1901). Opium produced in Afghanistan was exported to China, India, and Russia. ( UNODC , 2008) The Mahaban Mountains along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border became a prime cultivation area. Opium trade flourished in British India’s North-West Frontier Province (now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan), where it remains prevalent even today. Although opium production was limited to the Mahaban Mountains, this period marked Afghanistan’s first time ever formal engagement in the opium trade under Abdur Rahman’s government. (Winston, 2022) The “Golden Crescent” region, which includes Afghanistan, southwestern Pakistan and southeastern Iran, is one of the major geographical areas for the cultivation, packaging, refining and trafficking of narcotics especially Opium, Hashish and Heroin, which plays a major role in the rotation of this security phenomenon. (Sen, 1992) More recently, the methamphetamine industry has also intensified in Afghanistan. Before Afghanistan entered a cycle of violence, war, and terrorism, other countries like Colombia, Mexico & Myanmar were major producers of narcotics, known as the “crescent zone,” which produced and trafficked a significant portion of the world’s narcotics. Although narcotics cultivation in Afghanistan has a long history, the beginning of the armed struggle against Soviet aggression in Afghanistan, the civil war within the Mujahidin and the emergence and rise of great warlords mark the peak of the cultivation, refining and major smuggling of opium. This was the time when warlords gained more power and controlled a particular region in the country such as the Northern Alliance in the north and Haqqani network, Hezb-e-Islami and the Taliban group in the Southeast. When the old Mujahidins were ousted in the midst of a civil war fighting against more extremist, harsh and violent version with an Islamic ideology i.e. Taliban in 1994, drug production and trafficking peaked and the Taliban’s birth coincided with the stormy birth of the narcotics phenomenon on a large scale. (Peters, 2009) Furthermore, in the 1980s, the CIA’s support of the Afghan mujahidin resulted in a significant increase in opium production in Afghanistan. This surge in production facilitated the expansion of heroin laboratories in Pakistan, which became linked to the global market. By 1989, after a decade of substantial CIA covert operations in the region, Afghanistan emerged as the world’s largest supplier of illicit heroin, with Pakistan following closely as the second largest supplier. (Haq, 1996) Fig. 1: Afghanistan’s Opium Poppy cultivation from 1996 to 2006 (in hectares) Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S (Glaze, 2007) During the 1970s, Pakistan led Afghanistan in opium production, but Afghanistan rapidly caught up in the 1980s. Following the Soviet invasion, some Afghan farmers returned to poppy cultivation. The occupation further fueled an illicit economy due to Soviet policies that aimed to starve the mujahidin by destroying food crops. The disruption of agricultural production, combined with neglect from the government and a lack of support from Western and Muslim countries, led to the abandonment of legal agriculture and a turn to opium cultivation in some areas. Heroin profits were used to purchase weapons and food in Pakistan. In 1980s, reports emerged of a drug trade route through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir from the adjacent NWFP that went up the Karakoram Pass into Chinese controlled Xinjiang and Tibet, then down into Nepal; where nearly all the opium was sent to India. As there were no effective controls on the India-Nepal border, the drug supply could pass through to a port for shipment abroad. (Haq, 1996) Opium and narcotics funded the Taliban’s war economy. Although the consumption and sale of intoxicants are forbidden in Islam,

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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Statement Welcoming UK Imposing Sanctions After Chinese-Backed Cyber-attacks
MEDIA COVERAGEMARCH 26, 2024
100

Statement Welcoming UK Imposing Sanctions After Chinese-Backed Cyber-attacks

Red Lantern Analytica welcomes and expresses sincere appreciation for the resolute measures implemented by the United Kingdom in reaction to the concerning surge in cyber-attacks facilitated by the Chinese government. The implementation of sanctions on two Chinese nationals, and the company Wuhan Xiaoruizhi Science and Technology Company Ltd; unequivocally signifies that such egregious transgressions of global standards and cyber aggression shall not be accepted. State-sponsored cyber-attacks present a substantial peril to stability and security worldwide. These assaults jeopardize the reliability of digital infrastructure and compromise the privacy and security of organisations and individuals on an international scale. It is critical that the international community condemns these malicious activities in unison and holds those accountable. The proactive approach taken by the United Kingdom in implementing sanctions serves to emphasise its dedication to protecting cyberspace and repelling cyber threats. This resolute measure acts as a deterrent to individuals or entities desiring to partake in malevolent cyber endeavours without consequence. RLA strongly urges other countries to adopt similar measures in order to effectively combat the escalating threat posed by state-sponsored cyber-attacks. International cooperation and collaboration are imperative to efficiently address the ever-changing threat landscape and guarantee a digital environment that is secure and resilient for all individuals. As a collective, we must vigilantly combat the perils presented by malign cyber entities and safeguard the foundational principles of an internet that is unrestricted, transparent, and safe.

TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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Taliban, from Freedom Fighters to Fissures: Imran Khan’s Pashtun Power Play.
COMMENTARIESMARCH 20, 2024
101

Taliban, from Freedom Fighters to Fissures: Imran Khan’s Pashtun Power Play.

Pakistan’s political landscape is a complicated mixture of both power and identity. Imran Khan’s approach particularly in his characterisation of the Afghan Taliban as “freedom fighters” and his calls for dialogue with extremist elements often courted controversy. However, it is discernible that he transcended this contentious terrain to embody a persona emblematic of the delicate balance between soft Islamism and strategic pragmatism. Khan leveraged his Pashtun heritage and deftly tapped into the simmering undercurrents of Pashtun discontent with Punjabi dominance in both the military and bureaucracy. His rhetoric, often characterised by conciliatory overtures towards the TTP, demonstrated his profound grasp of the complex interplay between ideological imperatives and regional dynamics. He walked a fine line between appeasing the Taliban and maintaining strategic alliances within the military. Khan’s Pashtun heritage played both a boon and a burden in his navigation of Pakistan’s turbulent political waters. By tapping into the long-standing grievances of Pashtun marginalisation under Punjabi dominance, Khan positioned himself as a champion of a diverse Pakistani identity transcending provincial boundaries. It’s also this very embrace of identity politics that cast a shadow of suspicion upon him in the hallowed halls of the Punjabi-dominated military establishment, once his allies. As Khan’s advocacy for a greater Pashtun role in preserving Pakistan’s unity gained momentum, so too did the scrutiny and skepticism from within the corridors of power. He often invoked the arm and militant strength of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) as a testament to his power and political prowess, while alluding to the secession of East Pakistan in 1971 as a cautionary tale. Within these narratives lay a veiled warning: any disregard for his mandate might embolden Pashtuns to assert their rights more forcefully, thereby risking Pakistan’s sovereignty and inviting external interference. These nuanced insinuations, aimed at keeping the military establishment in check, exacerbated tensions and sparked further concerns about the repercussions of Khan’s political manoeuvres and his eventual removal from office. His purported victimisation by the military has now and understandably caused a significant shift in both rhetoric and action in the Pashtun heartland. The TTP’s more pronounced emphasis on Pashtun identity, rather than solely Islamic ideology, reflects a strategic recalibration aimed at capitalising on Khan-fanned regional sentiments of marginalisation. Khan’s victimisation by the Punjabi-dominated army has galvanised resentment within the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, while Faiz Hameed’s transition from a mediator to an instigator hints at deeper fractures within the Pakistan Army, Pakistan’s worst nightmare. As tensions simmer and fissures widen, attacks on regular army units will continue to increase, while KPK police, now seen as collaborators subservient to a perceived anti-army regime, will face reduced threats. Against this backdrop of ethnic fault lines, power struggles, and regional dynamics, Pakistan’s internal stability hangs precariously in the balance and paints a very volatile picture for Pakistan’s security apparatus. As they say in Pakistan, “Ab Allah Hi Haafiz Hai.” Author: Sonam Mahajan Strategic thinker and Geopolitical Analyst X (Previously Twitter) Handle: @AsYouNotWish

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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Statement condemning unnecessary comments from Chinese State-owned Media over Indian elections
MEDIA COVERAGEMARCH 18, 2024
102

Statement condemning unnecessary comments from Chinese State-owned Media over Indian elections

We unequivocally condemn the egregious interference by People’s Republic of PRC (PRC) officials in India’s internal affairs and the audacious remarks regarding India’s election environment and the Indian sovereign territory of Arunachal Pradesh. PRC’s persistent attempts to meddle in India’s domestic affairs are not only reprehensible but also indicative of a blatant disregard for international norms and principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Indian democratic process stands as a testament to our commitment to upholding the principles of democracy, transparency, and accountability, unlike the authoritarianism of the PRC. A tyrannical country like PRC which has no understanding of people’s participation in electing leadership but rather imposes its decisions on its people, has no authority to comment on India’s pious democratic process. Any attempt to cast doubt on the integrity of India’s electoral system is not only unfounded but also disrespectful to the aspirations of the Indians. PRC’s delusional claims over Arunachal Pradesh are utterly absurd and will not be entertained by the Indian government or the Indian people. Furthermore, India’s sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh is non-negotiable and indisputable and any attempt to question or challenge this fact is a clear affront to India’s territorial integrity. Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India and anyone’s malicious attempt to call it by cooked-up names will not change the truth. Also, Arunachal Pradesh doesn’t require any kind of recognition from any third party that is trying to meddle in India’s sovereign affairs. India remains committed to peaceful coexistence and the principles of international law. India is trying to bring peace and tranquillity to the Indo-Tibetan border but it is PRC’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) that time and again violates the 1996 agreement and led to this situation. PLA under the direction of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is not at all trustworthy and has time and again betrayed India’s trust. PRC’s belligerent actions then, and its continued provocative behaviour along the border now, serve as a stark reminder of its expansionist ambitions and disregard for peaceful coexistence. Finally, PRC which is heavily involved in disinformation and propaganda campaigns against other countries and regularly censors truth; has no right to comment on Indian media’s attention towards aggressive PRC We strongly urge the CCP, and its mouthpiece “The Global Times”, to refrain from any unrequired comments and reckless provocations against India.

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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Statement condemning the PRC’s unwarranted comments against India’s PM visit to Arunachal Pradesh
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYMARCH 11, 2024
103

Statement condemning the PRC’s unwarranted comments against India’s PM visit to Arunachal Pradesh

We strongly denounce the People’s Republic of China’s unjustified and gratuitous remarks against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh. The PRC protest is an act of interference in India’s domestic affairs and a clear violation of India’s sovereignty. It is an attempt to undermine its democratic process and we strongly condemn such actions and demand that PRC refrain from any further interference in India’s internal matters. Arunachal Pradesh is an innate and inseparable part of India. The visits of Indian leaders to any region of the country are a matter of India’s sovereign authority that cannot be questioned. It is unacceptable for any nation to meddle in India’s internal affairs or impede the movement of its leaders. The PRC’s efforts to sabotage such visits are inappropriate and reveal its sanctimonious behaviour. India staunchly upholds its people’s freedom with unwavering democratic beliefs, in stark contrast to the autocratic communist dictatorship of the People’s Republic of China, notorious for trampling on the rights of its citizens and suppressing them. The people of Arunachal Pradesh don’t need any advice from any third unrelated country on their affairs. It has the unassailable right to determine its own destiny, free from any external pressure or interference from the People’s Republic of China. We urge the People’s Republic of China to uphold India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and avoid engaging in similar provocative activities in the future. This behaviour simply aggravates tensions in the Indian Subcontinent. Such visits are a sovereign matter and should not be a cause for contention with any other nation. China’s response reflects a disregard for our sovereignty and an attempt to meddle in our internal affairs, which is unacceptable. India firmly reiterates its commitment to peaceful coexistence and cooperation with all its neighbouring countries, including Tibet, which is currently under the illegal military occupation of the PRC. We will take every necessary measure to safeguard our sovereignty and territorial integrity against any external aggression or interference from Beijing. We call on the international community to back India’s stance on this issue and demand that the People’s Republic of China comply with international law principles and acknowledge India’s sovereignty.

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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Troika Diplomacy and Fragile Hope: Can Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia Break the Deadlock in Myanmar?
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYMARCH 7, 2024
104

Troika Diplomacy and Fragile Hope: Can Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia Break the Deadlock in Myanmar?

Laos is leading the ASEAN bloc for the third time in 2024, having previously chaired in 2004 and 2016. The theme for its chairmanship is “Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience,” underlining Laos’ dedication to promoting a more interconnected and robust ASEAN. However, one of the main challenges for Laos to address under its chairmanship is the ongoing conflict and instability in Myanmar. Laos appointed Alounkeo Kittikhoun as its special envoy to Myanmar, aiming to push forward the implementation of ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus peace plan in Myanmar. Alounkeo, with extensive diplomatic experience, faces the challenging task of facilitating a negotiated solution to Myanmar’s conflict, which has escalated since the military coup in February 2021. The consensus, calling for an end to violence and inclusive dialogue, seems increasingly out of touch with the ground reality of a deepening conflict. ASEAN’s divided stance on the issue, with some members advocating for active involvement and others adhering to the principle of non-interference, limits the potential impact of Alounkeo’s role. Following the appointment, on January 11, 2024, Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s military leader, had a meeting with Alounkeo Kittikhoun, ASEAN’s special envoy handling the Myanmar crisis. This meeting coincided with Laos beginning its tenure as the chair of ASEAN. ASEAN has consistently pressed the military in Myanmar to comply with the “five-point consensus” aimed at restoring peace, but the military regime has been hesitant to follow through. According to state media, the discussions centred on the government’s initiatives towards achieving peace, stability, and national reconciliation. Min Aung Hlaing asserted that his government is aligning the implementation of the ASEAN five-point consensus with the State Administration Council’s own roadmap. However, the spokesperson for Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) emphasised that the special envoy should engage with all involved parties, not only the military. As of now, Laos has not publicly commented on the envoy’s visit or the meeting in its state-run media, nor has it made any official statements as the ASEAN chair regarding the meeting. In the latest round of ASEAN’s Foreign Ministers Retreat in Laos, escalating violence in Myanmar and China’s assertive activities in the South China Sea were major points of discussion. For the first time since the military coup in February 2021, Myanmar sent a high-level representative, ASEAN Permanent Secretary Marlar Than Htike, to an ASEAN foreign ministers meeting, which is viewed as a positive development. Laos, holding the ASEAN chairmanship and sharing a border with Myanmar, has sent a special envoy to Myanmar to promote the ASEAN “five-point consensus” for peace, though the military has so far ignored the plan. Lao Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith expressed cautious optimism about progress on these issues. Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan remained cautious about Myanmar’s commitment to the plan. ASEAN aims to increase humanitarian support while pushing for the consensus’s full implementation. Thailand is also advancing its efforts to provide humanitarian assistance to Myanmar, where over 2.6 million people have been displaced by civil conflict. The meeting between Min Aung Hlaing and ASEAN’s special envoy Alounkeo Kittikhoun and Foreign Ministers Retreat presents several significant points for analysis. To begin with, the visit by ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn to Laos indicates proactive measures by Laos to prepare for its leadership role within ASEAN. Engaging in discussions with high-level officials about key areas such as political security, economic, and socio-cultural aspects demonstrates Laos’ commitment to playing a constructive role in the regional bloc. In addition, ASEAN has been actively involved in addressing the crisis in Myanmar, and the meeting between Min Aung Hlaing and ASEAN envoy and his claim of aligning the ASEAN five-point consensus with the State Administration Council’s roadmap suggest a nominal acknowledgment of ASEAN’s efforts. However, the lack of substantial progress and the military regime’s reluctance to fully comply with the consensus indicate ongoing challenges in resolving the crisis. Furthermore, the National Unity Government’s call for the ASEAN envoy to engage with all stakeholders, not just the junta, highlights the complexities of the Myanmar situation. An inclusive approach involving all parties is critical for meaningful dialogue and long-term peace. Lastly, this situation underscores the delicate balance that ASEAN must maintain in addressing regional conflicts. While ASEAN aims to play a mediating role, its influence is limited by its principle of non-interference and the need to respect the sovereignty of member states. Laos’ preparations for ASEAN leadership, coupled with ongoing efforts to address the Myanmar crisis, reflect the regional bloc’s commitment to stability and peace. ASEAN’s credibility is at stake as the failure to make any significant progress in Myanmar, has damaged ASEAN’s reputation as a regional power broker and mediator. The military’s continued defiance of ASEAN’s consensus principles could force the bloc to consider more difficult steps like suspension from membership, further isolating Myanmar but risking regional instability. The situation in Myanmar is also influenced by external factors like China’s interests and the global geopolitical landscape. Laos, known for its quiet diplomacy, might prioritise small, achievable goals like facilitating prisoner releases or humanitarian access improvements. Even counternarcotics, due to its impact on Laos, may find a place on the ASEAN agenda. The troika mechanism, involving Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia, could ease the burden but Laos’ proximity to Myanmar and Thailand may influence its stance. Myanmar-Laos trade is minor, and Laos’ support for Thailand’s engagements likely stems from convenience. The Myanmar crisis, affecting Laos more than Thailand, has led to a drug epidemic. Counternarcotics and policing may be raised during Laos’ chairmanship, aligning with its national interest. However, China’s influence poses challenges. Laos’ stranglehold with Chinese debt limits its capacity to balance relations. Despite challenges, Laos aims to enhance connectivity and resilience during its chairmanship. Its success depends on navigating complex issues, including the Myanmar crisis, counternarcotics, and balancing international relations. Laos’ approach may involve maintaining a delicate balance, prioritising national interests, and leveraging regional cooperation to address pressing concerns. This could lead to some easing of tensions but wouldn’t address core issues like political dialogue or power-sharing. The military might offer some

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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RLA Press Release – Recent Bangladesh Elections and its Implications for India-Bangladesh Relationship
MEDIA COVERAGEFEBRUARY 7, 2024
105

RLA Press Release – Recent Bangladesh Elections and its Implications for India-Bangladesh Relationship

On 6 February, 2024 Red Lantern Analytica conducted a webinar titled “Recent Bangladesh Elections and its Implications for India-Bangladesh Relationship”. The expert speakers of the webinar included Dr. Ayanjit Sen, Associate Professor at Bennett University, Greater Noida, and Drona Bandyopadhyay, Assistant Professor at West Bengal Education Service. Dr. Ayanjit Sen commenced the session by describing the relations between India and Bangladesh as – Continuity and Stability. He said, “A stable & prosperous Bangladesh is in India’s interest. The relationship between India & Bangladesh has improved significantly under the leadership of Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina.” India considered the Bangladesh elections as an internal matter. He added that Indian PM Narendra Modi was the first to congratulate Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina on her victory in the recently concluded elections. On her part, PM Sheikh Hasina termed India as a great friend of Bangladesh. “India and Bangladesh stand together strongly under the Prime Ministers of both the nations,” he added. He further added that all the attempts of anti-India elements in Bangladesh to sour the relationship between the two nations have failed. Dr Sen also stated that the attempts to discredit Bangladesh’s elections have also failed as the elections took place successfully with the participation of a large number of candidates. Dr Sen also elaborated on initiatives taken by both India and Bangladesh to further strengthen the relationship between the nations, which included conducting trade in local currencies and ongoing talks between both countries regarding the Free Trade Agreement. He said that strengthening regional connectivity, defence cooperation and economic ties between India & Bangladesh are the best part of the relationship. “Both India and Bangladesh stand for regional peace, prosperity and stability,” he added. Professor Drona Bandyopadhyay said, “From Cuttack to Attock, we are part of one civilization. Indian-ness is prevalent across the South Asian region. Bangladesh was part of Bengal. The region has a glorious legacy of democratic struggle post-partition of India and also after 1971.” Commenting on the Bangladesh elections, he said that it was a contested election and a festival of democracy. He also elaborated on the electoral history of Bangladesh and how mass movements took place demanding free and fair elections. He drew a comparison between Pakistan and Bangladesh while describing the free and fair elections. He also cited the example of Imran Khan who was installed by the Pakistan Army as the PM of the country by rigging the elections and the people of Pakistan silently accepted the mandate of the Army. On the other hand, democracy is mature in Bangladesh and people always demand free, fair and participatory elections. “A large credit for this goes to the robust election commission of Bangladesh which is independent and has strong powers. There is no such mechanism in Pakistan where the Army is supreme,” he added. Prof. Bandyopadhyay condemned the electoral violence both in West Bengal and Bangladesh. He said this culture of violence during the elections needs to be stopped to further strengthen the roots of democracy in both regions. He further underlined the reason why the People’s Republic of China (PRC) wants Bangladesh to become part of the Belt and Road Initiative. It is due to the fact that Bangladesh is uniquely, geographically positioned as the gateway to Southeast Asia. He also noted that its stability, peace and prosperity are necessary for India’s northeastern region as well. If Bangladesh grows and prospers then the northeastern region and West Bengal will develop alongside. “India engages with Bangladesh & its constitution and not with Awami League or another party or stakeholder in the country,” he said. “Bangladesh always has had constitutional stability. Bangladeshis are mature enough and they have developed a big industrial state and their exports are also increasing,” he stated. “They have developed economically and they will develop politically too over time.” He concluded by saying, “Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) can co-exist together and work together for the development and betterment of Bangladesh.” Following the guest speaker’s address, there was an in-depth Q&A session. Mr Siddartha Ghosh, senior member of Red Lantern Analytica, moderated the session. Ms Kritika Rajput, research associate at Red Lantern Analytica, delivered the vote of thanks. The session was closed thereafter.

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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Press Release of Book discussion Session on ‘China Betrays Again’
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYFEBRUARY 7, 2024
106

Press Release of Book discussion Session on ‘China Betrays Again’

On January 28, 2024, Red Lantern Analytica hosted a Book discussion on ‘China Betrays Again’. Maj. Gen. Ashok Kumar VSM, Author of the Book, Kargil War Veteran & Military Expert; Air Commodore S.P. Singh VSM, Strategic Analyst & Senior Fellow at Centre For Air Power Studies (CAPS); Major Amit Bansal, Defence Strategist and War Veteran; Major Aparajita Pandey, Army Officer (Retd.) and Cyber Expert and Dr Vinay Kumar, Assistant Professor at National Law University, Aurangabad were the expert speakers of the webinar. Air Commodore S.P. Singh hailed the Book ‘China Betrays Again’ as the best on the India-China subject highlighting its comprehensive analysis of every issue in great detail. He elaborated on how the book offers in-depth insight into various aspects of India and China relations ranging from Buddhism to how the countries became victims of imperialism and all the conflicts after 1947. Air Commodore Singh stressed on various issues which are the bone of contention between India and China in modern times. He mentioned that, in 1987, Arunachal Pradesh attained statehood, the problems between India and China surged and after that relations didn’t turn back to normal. He further added that after Pokhran, tensions grew even further. The other issues which impact India and China relations adversely include China opposing the proposal by India to blacklist the Pak-based Jaish-e Mohammed terrorist Mashoor Azhar case in the UN, China’s tilt towards Pakistan since 1962, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), string of pearls, border dispute, standoff along the border, etc. “India joining various multilateral forums I2U2, QUAD, Joint military exercise with Japan and France, etc. is helping the £Indoa to deter China,” asserted Mr Singh. He also added that India’s self-reliance in defence manufacturing has given India little edge in dealing with India. “There is a need to increase our diplomatic, multilateral forums and economic reach to keep a check on China and have a peaceful border,” he expressed. Mr Singh concluded by stating that the book is a great asset for all those who want to learn more about China and an absolute must-read. It will be of great help to academicians and MEA officials as well. Maj. Gen. Ashok Kumar rejoiced, “The book is very close to his heart as it is his very first book.” He then mentioned instances when the Indian Army countered China successfully along the border after the 1962 debacle. He said that China faced humiliation at the hands of the Indian Army in the Nathu La in 1967 and the Sumdorong Chu standoff in 1986-87. Maj. Gen. Kumar said, “Our knowledge about China is very weak, be it among youth or defence officials. We can correct this only by adopting a whole of nation approach. In dealing with China, we need a 1971 war-like approach where we liberated East Pakistan in just 14 days and a new country was made.” He further added, “It is the character of China to backstab friends. An example of this is how China made Sri Lanka a victim of its debt-trap policy.” Maj. Gen. Kumar while shedding light on China’s expansionist agenda noted that China has been troubling all its neighbours since 1947. It has captured Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and islands in the South China Sea. “China’s map used to be small in 1947 but now it has grown larger by occupying other nations and regions forcefully”, he articulated. On India and China, he said that it is not a territorial issue but a sovereignty issue. “The buffer zone policy is disadvantageous to India.” Maj. Gen. Kumar briefly elaborated on the various topics including Line of Actual Control (LAC), the Siachen dispute, the Kargil war, the Land Boundary Law which came into act in China in October 2021, CPEC, the South China issue, etc in the book. Major Amit Bansal stated, “Every article in the book is a small book in itself. It is a comprehensive book and a must read for everyone.” He added, “China has border disputes with all its neighbours – like disputes with Russia over an island and Amur-Argun Rivers, Border dispute with Mongolia, North Korea over Tumen River and the list goes on because this is China’s nature. It is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) strategy to keep disputes open to backstab its friends as and when the right times come.” He then mentioned that China’s dispute with India is not just a territorial dispute, it is an economic dispute and a quest to become Asia’s sole superpower. “Each and every article of the book is a must-read to understand China’s ambitions and how its strategy with respect to India is working out,” he concluded. Major Aparajita Pandey said, “The book will help policymakers, defence officials and academicians to better understand the India-China issue and deal with China more efficiently going forward.”“There is a long-standing struggle between China’s neighbours. China has territorial disputes with all its neighbours, along with maritime disputes with almost all countries – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, etc,” affirmed Dr Vinay Kumar. He mentioned how China has reacted aggressively on almost every issue with India even when India has always shown a hand of cooperation and peace, for instance Panchsheel agreement and many more. He added that this book has covered a comprehensive Chinese foreign policy towards India and how to counter China’s territorial ambitions in the future. Following the guest speaker’s address, there was an in-depth Q&A session. Maj. Mohd. Ali Shah, Former Army Officer and Motivational Speaker moderated the session. Ms Kritika Rajput, Research Associate at Red Lantern Analytica delivered the vote of Thanks. The session closed after the vote of thanks was given.

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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RLA Press Release – ‘Understanding Occupied Gilgit-Baltistan under Pakistan aided by the PRC’
MEDIA COVERAGEFEBRUARY 7, 2024
107

RLA Press Release – ‘Understanding Occupied Gilgit-Baltistan under Pakistan aided by the PRC’

On January 27, 2024 Red Lantern Analytica conducted a webinar titled ‘Understanding Occupied Gilgit-Baltisan under Pakistan aided by the PRC’. Amjad Ayub Mirza, Author and Human Rights Activist from Mirpur in PoJK and Aarti Tikoo Singh, Founder and Editor in Chief of The New Indian were the expert speakers of the webinar. Amjad Ayub Mirza started the session by saying, “Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir are reaching the point of no return. The power has fallen into the hands of people in the form of Awami Action Committees. No political party in the region has the support of the masses,” he said. He elaborated on how masses in the region have been rebelling against the Pakistani establishment for the past month in the -10 degree temperature. He further added that there is no electricity, infrastructure, or drinking water in Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir. Mr. Mirza asserted that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will not be successful. Aarti Tikoo Singh stated, “Gilgit Baltistan under Pakistan occupation is only a 75-year-old story.” She elaborated on how the Pakistan Army wiped out ethnic minorities of Pakistan-Occupied Jammu Kashmir in 1947. “It has maintained the same approach in the last 75 years”, she added. Aarti Tikoo Singh also highlighted that Gilgit Baltistan is the only Shia-majority region in Pakistan. While underlining the incidents of Shia massacres in the region in the last 75 years, she stated, “Around 23,000 Shias have been killed in Gilgit Baltistan”. Anti-Shia violence has increased after the Zia-ul-Haq era. Ms Singh also mentioned that Blasphemy laws are being used to target Shias and other minorities in Pakistan. On the major powers rivalry in the region, she said, “The interests of Pakistan Army, China and the USA have converged in the Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistan Occupied Jammu Kashmir.” Aarti Tikoo Singh stated that China is interested in the GB and PoJK region due to Gwadar Port and enhance China’s connectivity with rest of the world. She noted that the Pakistan Army in the region is only interested in its interests and filling its coffers and not ensuring in welfare of the people. “Pakistan gifted the Shaksgam Valley to China for the same reason,” she mentioned. Aarti Tikoo Singh also highlighted that because of the Pakistani Army’s policies, the country’s national debt has increased significantly and people are protesting for basic things like wheat. She further added, “Pakistan has achieved nothing through the CPEC”. Singh concluded by saying, “People of Gilgit Baltistan have been used as cannon fodder by the Pakistani Army, the USA and China. Nobody has thought about the welfare of the people of the region. The USA has never condemned the human rights violations of people of Gilgit Baltistan by Pakistan and China.” Following the guest speaker’s address, there was an in-depth Q&A session. Dr. J Jeganaathan, Associate Professor at the JNU moderated the session. Ms. Karneet, research associate at Red Lantern Analytica delivered the vote of Thanks. The session closed after the vote of thanks was given. The session closed after the vote of thanks was given.

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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India shining: The Herculean Rise of the Real Asian Tiger
COMMENTARIESFEBRUARY 5, 2024
108

India shining: The Herculean Rise of the Real Asian Tiger

Gone are the days when India was referred to as a third world country by the Western powers that shaped the global world order. The diffidence with which India treated other nations at the helm of global affairs has now been replaced with more assertive though assiduous proclamations such as the unambiguous statement of External affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, “Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems”, at the GLOBSEC Bratislava Forum 2022. Increasingly, now, India is taking center stage at initiating dialogues on critical social, economic and political issues that are raging in the new multilateral power structures which govern international affairs. What was once only a diplomatic and soft power under the non aligned leadership during the Cold War era has now moved to a considerable economic and military power. In this regard, the year 2023 was epic for India in that it both convened and participated in a host of principal international summits addressing the same. In January 2023, India organized the Global South virtual summit, participated in the Quad summit (Japan) and was invited to the G7 meeting in Japan and also attended the BRICS summit in South Africa. More importantly, India also hosted two cardinal summits; the China led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in July and the G20 summit in New Delhi in September, while also being invited to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November. While both US and China eye the Global South as a critical area for expanding their geopolitical clout, India has emerged as a viable alternative for the South Asian developing economies keeping in mind their shared colonial history of exploitation and hard fought freedom struggle. Moreover, the issues raised by India in the aforementioned international summits further validate the premise that India is all for a multi polar rules-based international order, a striking feature which adds to the appeal of India in the Global South as well as with other developing nations such as in the Middle east and elsewhere. Take for example, India’s strong recommendation to reinvigorate multilateralism to “adequately address contemporary global challenges of the 21st Century, and to make global governance more representative, effective, transparent and accountable”, in the recently held G20 summit in New Delhi. As far as the reform of international financial institutions and managing global debt vulnerabilities was concerned, India was unequivocal in stating, “We underscore the need for enhancing representation and voice of developing countries in decision-making in global international economic and financial institutions in order to deliver more effective, credible, accountable and legitimate institutions. The international finance system must deliver significantly more financing to help developing countries and EMEs to fight poverty, tackle global challenges and maximize development impact.” Furthermore, for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), India affirmed its resolution to mobilize concessional finance to boost the World Bank’s capacity to support low and middle-income countries that needed help in addressing global challenges, with a “clear framework for the allocation of scarce concessional resources, and to provide strong support for the poorest countries.” As far as the US is concerned, the India-US strategic partnership is at an all time high after the state visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in June and the subsequent visit of President Joe Biden to India in September, where the two leaders affirmed the importance of Quad in “supporting a free, open, inclusive and resilient Indo-Pacific” and President Joe Biden categorically reaffirmed his support for a “reformed UN Security Council with India as a permanent member”. A few years before, in November 2019, US and India conducted Tiger Triumph (first ever tri service between the two nations), wherein the Indian armed services partnered with US Marines and sailors to rehearse disaster response and humanitarian aid delivery. India also participates in the U.S.-led Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise and trilateral Malabar exercise with the United States and Japan. These military exercises enhance US-India relations and help create a more stable and secure Indo-Pacific region. On the technological front, the two nations have signed the U.S.-India Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. In the joint statement, President Biden and Prime Minister Modi congratulated India and ISRO on Chandrayaan’s historic landing at the Southern region of the moon along with the successful launch of India’s first solar mission, Aditya-L1. In this light, NASA and ISRO have commenced discussions on modalities, capacity building, and training for mounting a joint effort to the International Space Station in 2024. Moreover, for building resilient semi conductor supply chains, Microchip Technology, Inc., would invest approximately US$300 million in expanding its research and development presence in India and Advanced Micro Device’s announced investment of US$400 million in India over the next five years to expand research, development, and engineering operations in India. The defense ties with the two nations have also deepened with the diversification of the Indo-US Major Defense Partnership, along with LEMOA, COMCASA and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement, allowing for accelerated defense industrial collaboration and cooperation in emerging domains such as space and AI. The commercial agreement between GE Aerospace and Hindustan Aeronautical Limited (HAL) to manufacture GE F-414 jet engines in India will result in an unprecedented advancement of technology transfer and co-production. India has also emerged as a hub for maintenance and repair of forward deployed US Navy assets, aircrafts and other vessels through the most recent agreement signed by the U.S. Navy and Mazgaon Dock Shipbuilders, Ltd., in August 2023. As far as climate change is concerned, both the nations have exchanged letters of interest to each provide up to US$500 million to anchor a renewable infrastructure investment fund while jointly supporting a payment security mechanism financed through both public and private funds which shall accelerate the procurement of 10,000 made-in India electric buses including those for the Indian PM e-Bus Sewa program that will also include the associated charging infrastructure. On the other hand, to counter China’s ambitions in Central

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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Statement on Sri Lanka banning Chinese Research Vessels from Entering its Ports
MEDIA COVERAGEJANUARY 5, 2024
109

Statement on Sri Lanka banning Chinese Research Vessels from Entering its Ports

In the latest episode of CCP (Chinese Communist Party) induced warfare, India has been accused by the PRC (People’s Republic of China) of pressurising Sri Lanka to ban Chinese research vessels from entering its ports. The irksome reaction by the CCP was received soon after Sri Lanka informed India that it will not allow any Chinese research vessel to dock at Sri Lankan ports or operate within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for a period of one year. The announcement came in just as Chinese scientific research vessel, Xiang Yang Hong 3, was planning to carry out deep water exploration in the southern Indian Ocean from January 5, 2024. The PRC was earlier permitted by Sri Lanka to operate its research ships, hydrographic vessels and ballistic missiles trackers to reach and survey the Indian Ocean Region, with at least 25 such ships having been operated in 2023 alone. However, their activity kept increasing, close to the eastern and western coastlines of India. Keeping in mind the CCP’s espionage history, India always remained vigilant of such movements. The CCP’s accusation of India putting pressure on Sri Lanka to ban their research ships is totally uncalled for as Sri Lanka, being a democratic republic nation, is independent to make decisions as to who should be given access to such strategic areas. Moreover, it is highly unlikely for the Sri Lankan government to forget what the CCP did to them – a full blown economic crisis caused by the CCP’s ‘Debt Trap Diplomacy’. PRC took advantage of Sri Lanka’s increasing economic burden in 2022 and became the second largest lender to Sri Lanka with the ultimate goal of holding its economy hostage by increasing interest rates and occupying strategic natural resources in lieu of unpaid debt. The port sites of Hambantota and Colombo have also been leased to the PRC for a hundred years. PRC always had expansionist goals along the Indian Ocean region and it hides under the garb of sending “scientific research vessels” in order to further its aims of surveillance and setting military bases at foreign ports. Red Lantern Analytica welcomes the positive move by Sri Lanka authorities to ban these CCP fuelled ‘spy ships’ from surveying the Indian Ocean and looks forward to the global leaders devising plans of collaboration to counter the increasing assertiveness of the PRC.

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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2023 in Review for the People’s Republic of China
CHINAJANUARY 3, 2024
110

2023 in Review for the People’s Republic of China

For People’s Republic of China (PRC), 2023 has been a roller-coaster ride. A few recurring themes were present in the Chinese politics and Foreign Policy approach like the Human Rights violations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, the Trade war with Western countries, the stand on Russia-Ukraine and Israel-HAMAS war, etc. Here we try to break down a few of these events throughout the year: Downward economic trend On 5 December, Moody’s downgraded its outlook for Chinese sovereign bonds from stable to negative, citing concerns over China’s ability to repay government borrowing. The credit rating agency highlighted the ripple effects of a crisis in the property sector, warning that Beijing might need to bail out local and regional governments and state-owned enterprises struggling with rising debts. This move highlights global concerns about the level of debt in the world’s second-largest economy and suggests that China’s credit rating could be cut in the future. This came amid the reports in August that the Chinese Economy is slipping into deflation as consumer prices fell year on year in July for the first time in over two years. The decline is attributed to slowing domestic spending and weaker demand for Chinese products globally. Lesser domestic spending can be attributed to the decline in population. According to the reports released by the government in August, China’s fertility rate had hit an estimated record low of 1.09 in 2022, making it the lowest among countries with a population over 100 million. The working-age population contracted by over 40 million between 2019 and 2022. The decline in the economy prompted Evergrande, China’s heavily indebted property developer, to file for bankruptcy protection in a US court under Chapter 15 of the US bankruptcy code. The company’s collapse fears sent shockwaves through China’s economy. The step came as China’s property sector continued to face challenges, impacting economic growth. Another shock came from Country Garden, once China’s largest developer by revenue, which faced the risk of default. Until August, the company had missed two-dollar bond payments last week and has until early September to address concerns of a potential default. This negative economic trend prompted the Chinese government to suspend the release of youth unemployment figures when youth unemployment had hit a record high of 21.3% in June, citing the need to “further improve and optimize labour force survey statistics.” In contrast to its declining trend, according to news reports in November, China has become the world’s largest debt collector, with the money owed to the country from developing nations surging to between $1.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion. However, as the debts to Chinese lenders have mounted, the number of suspended or cancelled projects increased which raised concerns in China about the risk of defaults. Chinese lenders are also increasing penalties for late repayments, although this move may alienate borrowers. Human Rights Violations in Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet On 18 January, Hong Kong police raided a Lunar New Year shopping fair, arresting six people for selling a “seditious” book related to the 2019 anti-government protests, just days before the celebrations. The individuals, aged between 18 and 62, were accused of producing and publishing a “seditious book about a series of riots that occurred in Hong Kong from June 2019 to February 2020.” These actions spread terror and are part of the ongoing political crackdown on freedom of speech and expression in Hong Kong under the national security law. Then in February, United Kingdom’s MPs through an inquiry by the All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Hong Kong accused HSBC Bank of complicity in human rights abuses against Hong Kong residents by siding with Chinese authorities and denying pension payouts to those who fled the authoritarian crackdown. The APPG argues that HSBC’s decision has hindered Hong Kong residents from establishing new lives in the UK and deems the bank complicit in human rights abuses. On 4 March, three former members of a Hong Kong organization that arranged annual vigils commemorating China’s Tiananmen Square crackdown were convicted of failing to comply with a national security police request for information. The group disbanded in September 2021, and the charges against its former members were part of a broader crackdown on pro-democracy activists and organizations in Hong Kong. Later that same month, Hong Kong’s national security police arrested two men for possessing children’s books deemed seditious. The arrests were the first known incidents where individuals were detained for possessing books considered seditious which raised concerns about vague definitions of sedition charges in Hong Kong. On 24 July, Hong Kong’s national security police detained the daughter, son, and daughter-in-law of activist Elmer Yuen, accusing them of aiding wanted activists. Elmer Yuen is accused of encouraging foreign countries to impose sanctions on Hong Kong officials and promoting Hong Kong’s self-determination. The arrest was part of a broader crackdown on pro-democracy figures in exile. Authorities in Hong Kong had issued bounties for the arrest of eight activists based overseas, including the UK, US, and Australia. Not only Hong Kong, there are Human Rights violations in Xinjiang as well. On 24 September, Rahile Dawut, a prominent Uyghur professor specializing in Uyghur folklore and traditions, who disappeared six years ago, was sentenced to life in prison by Chinese authorities for “endangering state security.” Dawut is one among more than 300 Uyghur intellectuals detained since 2016, while an estimated 1.5 million Uyghurs have been held in re-education camps. On 13 October, a report based on a four-year long investigation by the Outlaw Ocean Project revealed the extensive use of forced labour in China’s government-backed fishing industry, including the deployment of Uyghur forced labour in seafood processing facilities. The investigation sheds light on the appalling conditions faced by workers on China’s distant-water fishing fleet and underscores the large-scale use of Uyghur forced labour in seafood processing. The report warns that Beijing’s persecution of Uyghurs has evolved, with some being moved into forced labour after facing global scrutiny. In another case in November, a Uyghur filmmaker Ikram Nurmehmet alleged that he

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Press Release – India’s Neighbourhood: The Road ahead
MEDIA COVERAGEDECEMBER 21, 2023
111

Press Release – India’s Neighbourhood: The Road ahead

On December 19th, 2023, Red Lantern Analytica conducted a lecture titled ‘India’s Neighbourhood: The Road Ahead’. Dr. Happymon Jacob, an Associate Professor and the founder of the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, was the expert speaker of the lecture. “India has over 15,000 kilometres of land border out of which it shares 7,000 kilometres with Pakistan & China, blocking India’s access to the rest of the world on these two fronts; it is completely inaccessible,” said Dr. Happymon Jacob. India has a complex ties with the South Asian countries owing to the engagement of non-resident China in the region and India is attempting to fix it soon, he added. He elaborated on the five primary drivers of India’s relations with the South Asian region, the first being the British colonial legacy in the region. Much of the South Asian region was under the control of the British Empire. Dr. Happymon Jacob said that British rules, norms, traditions and worldview survived even after the independence. Post-independence, India’s policy towards the rest of the world changed but it remained the same as far as the South Asian region is concerned as both India & Pakistan continued to engage with South Asia based on previously established treaties, practices & arrangements, he added. Second is the regional primacy gained by India. “India naturally acquired Regional Primacy post-independence even when it did not seek for it. India remained intolerant towards taking any sides during the Cold War and this non-alignment policy strengthened the cause of regional primacy,” said Dr. Happymon Jacob. The third aspect is India’s desire to become a leading power in the international system. Dr. Happymon Jacob said that in the decade of change, the 1990s, India moved towards the prosperity on the economic front. India being high on the moral compass further strengthened the trust of international system in us. The fourth driver is the certain sense of insecurity when it comes to South Asia. India has and is having issues with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Pakistan has always been at the forefront of state sponsored terrorism in India and insurgency in different parts of the country be it Sikh Militancy in Punjab, terrorism in Kashmir or the insurgency in North East Region of India. The fifth driver is the rise of People’s Republic of China (PRC) and its growing interest in the South Asian region. PRC views the South Asian region as its sphere of influence now and attempts to cater to the region’s military & material needs. Belt & Road Initiatives offered infrastructure support and cheap loans, is letting for few countries in the region to align more towards China. PRC’s perceived desire to increasingly appear as a peacemaker and pretending to resolve its border disputes with the South Asian neighbours is alarming since it is the same country which has border disputes with all its neighbours. The other major concern is PRC’s expansionist agenda in the Himalayas. It illegally lays claims on parts of Indian state, Arunachal Pradesh and has gone to the extent of changing the names of many places of the state. China allegedly calls Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet. Dr. Happymon Jacob said, “The problem for South Asian countries has come down to choosing between an authoritarian China and a democratic India. PRC lures them with cheap loans & resources but that’s unsustainable! India is more focused on safe multilateral trade.” He also pointed out that the South Asian region is the least integrated region in the world. India goes slow on multi-lateral arrangements but on the bilateral front, it is very enthusiastic, he added. He listed strategic dilemmas that India faces in the region. There are three broad sets of causes behind the dilemmas India faces in the neighbourhood. The first is the regional geopolitical architecture characterised by overlapping elements. Contemporary South Asia is characterised by a diminishing presence of the United States in the region. The second is PRC’s rise in the region which has come as a ‘geopolitical buffer’ in the region. Many countries are using the PRC card against India in their foreign policy assertions. The third is the PRC is providing capital to economies of the region to fulfill its expansionist policies. Fourth, India, for the most part, has had a normative and political approach towards the region. The PRC, on the other hand, offers itself as the no-frills non-normative alternative. Lastly, India thinks cultural connections with the region help us better deal with the countries. However, the reality is that Culture connect, soft power or religion is not appealing to South Asia anymore. Nevertheless, India is successful in trading off this mindset and forming real connections! The second cause behind India’s regional dilemma is India’s inability to deal with multiple power centres in the neighbourhood. We should have the ability to deal with multiple power centres in the country. Dr. Happymon Jacob concluded by stating that India is taking steps in the right direction by increasing its manpower, number of diplomats and envisioning an all-encompassing strategy to take over as the major driver of South Asian development. Following the guest speaker’s address, there was an in-depth Q&A session. Ms. Kritika Rajput, a Research Associate at RLA, moderated the session. Ms. Karneet Kaur, Research Associate at Red Lantern Analytica delivered the vote of Thanks. The session closed after the vote of thanks was delivered.

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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Statement on Illegal Chinese Activities in the Bhutanese territory
MEDIA COVERAGEDECEMBER 13, 2023
112

Statement on Illegal Chinese Activities in the Bhutanese territory

Amid the ongoing border talks happening between Bhutan and China to formally demarcate their boundary, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has shown utmost hypocrisy by continuing unsanctioned construction activities in North Bhutan’s Jakarlung Valley. Satellite images between August 2021 to December 23 depict how fast the illegal Chinese construction activities have been taking place in the valley with over 100 residential quarters standing there when there were zero to begin with in 2021. These are not just isolated outposts but rather important components of a comprehensive system being developed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to further their ambitions of territorial gains. The satellite images support proof of the ongoing construction of at least 129 buildings and another 62 buildings of a different enclave, not far away from there. We had earlier too, in our statement dated April 15, 2023 (Link) warned of Bhutan being heavily pressurised by China and the latest PRC attempts establish the same. On one hand the PRC is trying to appease Bhutan by showing interest in upscaling bilateral relations and the willingness to solve border disputes but on the other hand they are trying to sinicise the Bhutanese landscape. Even after formally signing an agreement with Bhutan in 1998 to not alter the status quo in disputed areas, the PRC violated the agreement by occupying and settling in the Jakarlung Valley. The main reason for the CCP to do this is the vicinity of Jakarlung vtalley to the Amu Chu River Valley which lies adjacent to the Doklam plateau. By coming close to this territory the PRC wants to increase its presence near the Siliguri Corridor that connects India’s Northeast Region with the rest of the country. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has already been attempting to unilaterally change the status quo of the Indo-Tibet border and any Chinese expansion in Bhutan means gaining them advantage in its ‘salami slicing’ strategy and moving forward step by step to reach India. Although Bhutan might not have the required capacity to retaliate, India has reacted strongly to the illegal Chinese activities. Red Lantern Analytica stands with Bhutan and condemns the PRC for its attempts to indulge in unsanctioned building activities in the Bhutanese territory. We will also urge the International community to come forward to ensure a rule based world order where aggressors like the PRC are made accountable for their acts.

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RLA Press Release – The Siang Dialogue 1.0 – Session 3 (‘The Tawang Translation)
MEDIA COVERAGEDECEMBER 10, 2023
113

RLA Press Release – The Siang Dialogue 1.0 – Session 3 (‘The Tawang Translation)

10th December 2023 The Red Lantern Analytica organized a three-day conference, ‘The Siang Dialogue 1.0’, from 8th to 10th December. In the third & last session titled ‘The Tawang Translation’, the speakers were Dr. Ayanjit Sen, Veteran Journalist & Associate Professor at Bennett University; Tenzin Lekshay La, Spokesperson of Central Tibetan Administration; Dr. Soumya Awasthi, Author & Consultant with Ministry of Defence and Tsewang Dorji Jeshong, Researcher from Tibet Policy Institute. Dr. Ayanjit Sen started by sharing his experience of living near Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh and how things have changed now on the tourism front as compared to the 1960s. “An integral part of India will always remain an integral part of India no matter what may come,” he said. From the China factor in foreign policy perspective, Arunachal Pradesh holds very significant importance and it is not “South Tibet” (as claimed by China), he added. “Invented Chinese names won’t stick at all. Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India and superfluous claims by CCP China won’t change a thing.” he stated. He also warned China not to cross the border in Arunachal Pradesh & distort the names of villages of the region as they will face the same what they faced in Ladakh in 2020. “Today’s India is much more militarily and diplomatically stronger than what it used to be in the 1960s. Now people in India are more aware of what’s happening in Arunachal Pradesh. There is more awareness among the global community as far as the India-China border dispute is concerned,” Dr. Sen asserted. addressing China’s sinister tactics of including Arunachal in its own so called official map, he concluded by saying, “You can remove Arunachal Pradesh from the map but not from Geography.” Tenzin Lekshay La began by thanking Indian people for supporting the Tibet issue since the leadership of JP Narayan in the 1960s. He said that Indian people need to know more about the Tibet issue and human rights violations being carried out by China. He highlighted that India & Tibet have been connected by borders, history, culture, and spiritualism for centuries. “India is the Guru of Tibet and it is the moral responsibility of the Guru to support its disciple in times of crisis”, Tenzin La expressed. “The Tibetan cause is a just cause. India talks about Satyamev Jayate, and Tibet believes in divine truth as well. China fears they are losing control since they lack this truth,” he said. He asserted that the survival of Tibet is very much relevant to the survival of India in the future. He said, “If Tibetans suffer then Indians will also suffer at the hands of the Chinese and history has shown this.” He highlighted the fact that Tibet is the lifeline of both Indian and Chinese civilizations as key rivers which act as the lifeline of both regions originate in Tibet. “Learning from the past, we can change the course of the future,” he said. Tenzin La expressed the concern of the ecological damage being done by China in Tibet. Glaciers are melting rapidly, temperature is rising at double rate because China is putting so much pressure on the fragile ecology of Tibet. He further said, “Landslides, earthquakes and floods have become a common phenomenon in Tibet and all the other Himalayan states all because of damage being done by China in Tibet.” He concluded by appealing to Indians to support Tibet not only emotionally but also through actions. “China is carrying out genocide in Tibet. It is running colonial-style schools in the region to indoctrinate Tibetan children.” “The Chinese have a very aggressive and expansionist agenda,” said Dr. Soumya Awasthi in the context of CCP China’s actions in Tibet. She said, “Tibet is a very important part of India’s history.” She further added that the Tibet issue continues to be unresolved due to China’s expansionist agenda. It has not honored the 1954 agreement of giving Tibetan people autonomy to run their government. Dr Awasthi highlighted the initiatives taken by India to support the Tibet issue including constituting a Special Frontier Force in 1962, training Tibetans to fight at high altitudes, supporting Tibetan refugees & granting them asylum, providing support to the Dalai Lama and also inviting Lobsang Sangay, former Sikyong of the Central Tibetan Administration, at a government event in 2014. The Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India formalized the Tibetan Rehabilitation Policy in 2014. Dr. Soumya Awasthi suggested that India must also come out with its map game to reply to China in its own language to support the Tibetan cause strongly. She highlighted the fact that India’s stand on Tibet issue is now much stronger and the risk-taking capacity has also increased. She also advised the Tibetan Government-in-exile to enter into a comprehensive agreement with India on how to move forward on the Tibet issue. Tsewang Dorji elaborated on the geopolitical significance of Tawang in India-China relations & China’s Great Game in the Himalayan region. He said that the geopolitical importance of Tibet is very critical to understand China’s expansionist agenda in the Himalayan region. The RLA plans to have the next edition of Siang Dialogue in Arunachal Pradesh. The three-day ‘The Siang Dialogue 1.0’ conference was full of insights on the India-China border issue, the Tibet issue, the geopolitical importance of the Northeastern region of India, China’s great game in the Himalayan region and Southeast Asia & much more. The ‘The Siang Dialogue 1.0’ conference concluded on a very high note. Following the guest speaker’s address, there was an in-depth Q&A session which highlighted key issues like Beijing meddling with the narrative of Tibet and suppression of free media under the Chinese Communist Party regime. The speakers enunciated that China must not preach things that it itself doesn’t practice like bringing peace and creating friendly ecosystems. The session delved into the historical facts regarding the 1962 war and the border skirmishes that happened all along. Speakers further explored the origins of the people of Tibet, the historical significance

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RLA Press Release – The Siang Dialogue 1.0 – Session 2 (Lohit’s Longitude)
MEDIA COVERAGEDECEMBER 9, 2023
114

RLA Press Release – The Siang Dialogue 1.0 – Session 2 (Lohit’s Longitude)

9th December 2023 The Red Lantern Analytica is organising a three-day ‘The Siang Dialogue 1.0’ conference, from 8th to 10th December. In the second session titled ‘Lohit’s Longitude’ was held on 9th December 2023, where discussions were held on understanding India’s North East as gateway to the “Act East policy”. The speakers were Shri Sujeet Kumar, Member of Rajya Sabha; Ajay Dutt, Member of the Delhi Legislative Assembly, Major Amit Bansal, Defence Strategist and Dr. J. Jeganaathan, Associate Professor at JNU. Kritika Rajput, Research Associate at RLA, commenced the session by elaborating on the topic. Shri. Sujeet Kumar sent his best wishes for the session in his video message. While highlighting the importance of ‘The Siang Dialogue 1.0’. he said, “Northeast region of India holds immense political & geopolitical importance. India’s ‘Act East Policy’ cannot be successful unless we focus more on the Northeast”. “There has been clear mention of the Northeastern region in Mahabharat and Buddhist texts”, Major Amit Bansal said. He further added that since ancient times Northeastern region had cultural and political connections with the rest of India and that all seven states in the Northeastern region have their own challenges. He also mentioned that India’s Act East Policy is based on the 4 C’s – Culture, Commerce, Connectivity, and Capacity Building. Major Bansal stated, “One of the biggest challenges we are facing in the Northeast is the almost eight decades of insurgency”. He stressed that each tribal group in Northeast has its own unique culture, hence, we need to understand the mindset of tribals of the Northeast region as 35% of India’s total tribal population lives in seven states of the Northeast. He further shared his personal experience of visiting seven Northeastern states where he witnessed rampant poverty in villages. “Lack of development is also a big challenge in the region,” he added. He asserted that insurgent and separatist groups are of concern. Also, for a long time in this region, there is lack of development and the benefits are not reaped by common people. Major Bansal suggested that the Government should focus more on strengthening connectivity between the Northeast and the ASEAN countries to make the Northeast an engine of growth & also to counter China’s growing influence in ASEAN countries. “Act East Policy has to move very fast and China’s challenge for India consists of security, culture and trade”, he further added. Major Bansal also highlighted that China has border disputes with its almost every neighbour. He warned that China’s ambition of becoming the only superpower in Asia will pose a significant challenge in the Northeast. “China works in a sense of superiority. It is destroying Tibetan culture by destroying monasteries. By doing so it’s damaging Tibet’s spiritual connection with India,” he reiterated. He concluded by saying that to counter China’s influence in the ASEAN region we need to act very fast with our “Act East Policy” and increase our trade with ASEAN countries and it can be done only by developing the Northeast region at a rapid pace. Ajay Dutt highlighted how closely Northeastern states are linked with the rest of the country and extended neighborhood and are extremely rich in natural resources. He said, “The region is very diverse and has extensive cultural, historical and economic connections with Southeast Asian countries”. He stressed how Northeastern states act as a bridge to the Bay of Bengal and Himalayan regions. There is need for exploring the hidden economic potential of the Northeast region and strengthening the connectivity of the region with Southeast Asia & other nearby countries, he further added. Dr. J. Jeganaathan, moderated the session and also delivered the keynote address. He elaborated on how connectivity and infrastructure are the biggest challenges in the region as one has to circumvent Bangladesh in order to transport goods, and other requirements. “However, in the last 10 years, Northeast has emerged as a bridge in connecting India with the Southeast Asian region and trade is the game-changer in the region”, he stated. He also added that the physical & digital connectivity in the region has expanded significantly in the last 5 years. He concluded by saying that we need to focus more on Myanmar, Bangladesh and ASEAN countries in light of China’s increasing presence in the region. “In the coming decade, CCP China is set to lose trade in the Indo-Pacific and ASEAN markets. The void will be filled by India and the Northeast region of India will be the flag bearer of such a dynamic development,” he said. “There needs to be more substance in India’s Act East Policy with respect to strategic aspect,” he added. RLA plans to have the next Siang Dialogue in Arunachal Pradesh. Following the guest speaker’s address, there was an in-depth Q&A session. Ms. Kusuma, Research Associate at Red Lantern Analytica delivered the vote of Thanks. The session closed after the vote of thanks was delivered.

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RLA Press Release – The Siang Dialogue 1.0 – Session 1 (The Namsai Note)
MEDIA COVERAGEDECEMBER 8, 2023
115

RLA Press Release – The Siang Dialogue 1.0 – Session 1 (The Namsai Note)

8th December 2023 Red Lantern Analytica is organizing their annual event called “The Siang Dialogue 1.0” in virtual mode between 8th to 10th December. The three-day event has been named in reverence after the Siang River, which not only forms the economic, cultural and ecological bedrock of the region but also irrigates life by providing Brahmaputra a bulk of its water. Thus, supporting life to millions in India and Bangladesh. It had its inaugural Session “The Namsai Note” on 8th December 2023. This event aims to stimulate discussions involving general public and policy makers alike towards the strategic importance of attending to India’s neighborhood in the Indian subcontinent and will also involve in-depth discussions on India’s north-east region. Not many know that the sixth Dalai Lama was born in India’s Tawang region of Arunachal Pradesh in 1682. Also, that the mighty Brahmaputra derives its might from the river Siang which flows in Arunachal. Covering many such interesting facets was the first session – The Namsai Note, deriving its name from the place having the largest Buddhist monastery in North East India. The speakers for the session were Shri Ninong Ering, MLA from Arunachal Pradesh, Dr. Sriparna Pathak, Associate Professor at O.P. Jindal Global University; Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, Dr. Shrabana Barua, Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, and Ms. Namrata Hasija, Research Fellow at Centre for China Analysis and Strategy. Mr. Ninong Ering thanked RLA for taking up such an important topic and wished all the very best for the success of the conference. He shared how the North East Region is of great importance for India strategically and geopolitically as there is growing influence of the region for the world. Dr. Sriparna Pathak elaborated on the details of the topic in great depth and its impact on the Northeast. She talked about how China is weaponizing water. She said that the control of water by upper riparian China, leads to devastation in lower riparian regions of India. “In 2017 during the Doklam crisis, China did not provide information about the hydrological data of Brahmaputra river which originates from Tibet. However, the information was shared with Bangladesh. The consequence of this can be seen in the floods that wreaked havoc in 2017,” she said. China has been exploring natural resources like water, to target the other neighboring countries, she further added. Dr. Sriparna said that the mindless construction of dams by China in ecologically sensitive regions like Occupied Tibet, on the Majia Zangbu river, will badly impact natural habitats and its impact can be seen in the form of floods in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and other Northeast regions. “China is also supporting insurgent groups in the Northeastern region”, she said. Many insurgents of Northeastern are living in Yunnan Province of China and many have strong connections with Chinese agencies. “China’s proxy war against India in the Northeast region includes the supply of weapons, money laundering, abetment in internal violence and influencing electoral choices”, said Dr. Sriparna Pathak. Dr. Rajiv Nayan elaborated on how the geographical location of Northeast India makes it very special. “Geography is constant, it cannot be changed”, he said. Dr. Rajiv Nayan delved into the history of geopolitics and how technological & scientific advances can significantly alter the benefits of geography. He said that despite technological advances, the State remains the principal geopolitical actor. “The northeast region has significant strategic value and it is the gateway to Southeast Asia,” Dr. Rajiv Nayan said. He added that the Government of India has been working with the mantra of “Act Fast for Northeast, Act First for Northeast”. He said that the Government has transformed the “Look East Policy” into the “Act East Policy”. In the last 10 years, the Northeastern region of the country has witnessed significant transformation on the infrastructure front under the current leadership, he further added. Dr. Shrabana Barua focused more on connectivity in the Northeast region and how it is transforming strategic aspects in the region. “Northeast has already been mainstreamed, it is very much a changed picture today for the region”, she said. Dr. Shrabana Barua stressed that we need to address the China factor in the Northeast region. She highlighted the example of China reviving the Burma road which can lead to an increase in smuggling and opium trade if it is constructed completely. She also informed the audience that China was planning to extend its reach to the Indian Ocean in the 1980s and it came to light in the form of String of Pearls in the 2000s. The Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) initiative is doing good work in integrating the region with neighboring countries, she said. Dr. Shrabana Barua suggested that the Indian Government should utilize water resources in the northeast region to its greatest potential by strengthening inland water connectivity. She commended the Government’s works of building new bridges, connecting the region with Railways and building airports in the Northeast. Dr. Shrabana Barua concluded by saying that the picture has changed in the Northeast and we should move ahead with optimism but we still have a lot of work to do in the region. Ms. Namrata Hasija, research fellow at the Centre for China Analysis & Strategy, moderated the session. She also remarked, “North East Region of India is set to play a crucial role in India’s grandiose plan of development. CCP China’s Belt and Road Initiative is being countered proactively & China’s evil plans are upfront now.” Ms. Kusuma, Research associate at Red Lantern Analytica delivered the vote of Thanks. The session closed after a brief Q&A session. The team of Red Lantern Analytica, while launching this Virtual Conference, has hoped that the next edition of this annual affair can be organized in Arunachal Pradesh itself.

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India’s Evolving Role in the Global South
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYNOVEMBER 9, 2023
116

India’s Evolving Role in the Global South

For centuries, Indian philosophy emphasized ‘Partnerships’ and ‘Solidarity’ with the developing nations, and India’s presidency at G20 also reiterated ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.’ These ideologies were practiced even before India became independent, and they strengthened to a greater extent after independence. Indian policymakers understood the subjugation due to the colonization in many developing or underdeveloped countries and provided assistance according to the needs and potentiality. India promoted the values of ‘coexistence’ and ‘sharing’ in the South-South Cooperation from time to time. In the post-Cold War era, many Asian and African countries (the Global South) were still grappled with economic and social independence from the colonizers. India assisted developing nations at various levels like education, training, and initiatives, including economic development and cooperation. India also showed non-aligned foreign policy when alliance structure perplexed the world. Development through bilateral trade, humanitarian assistance, or peace-building assistance programs was complementary to Indian external affairs and always showed ‘solidarity’ and mutual growth towards developing countries. In 2008, India also committed to the ‘Neighborhood First Policy’ where light was on creating ‘mutually beneficial, people-oriented and non-reciprocal.’ It strengthened cooperation, connectivity, and development in various sectors. Unfolding the latest progress, unfortunately, COVID-19 has devastated almost every sector in every country of varied intensities. India has a 1.3 billion population with diverse socio-economic backgrounds, and still, through the initiative ‘Vaccine Maitri,’ offered support to over 150 nations in the form of ‘Made in India’ vaccines, medical equipment, and medicines during the pandemic and gained a reputation as ‘Pharmacy of the World’. This aid had no divide between the Global North and the Global South. In general, humanitarian assistance was prioritised over partnerships of geopolitical interests. This reflects that the policy of the whole society – one family approach is not new to Indian foreign policy. It is both ‘equal’ and ‘equitable’ values of the Indian policies. India’s latest example of its dynamic leadership goes without saying. India hosted a virtual summit in 2023 as ‘Voice of the Global South’ with more than 120 countries from the Global South. The theme reiterates the core values of Indian philosophy, i.e., “Unity of Voice, Unity of Purpose.” Moreover, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at the summit, “We have turned the page on another difficult year that saw war, conflict, terrorism and geopolitical tensions; rising food, fertiliser and fuel prices; climate change-driven natural disasters; and, lasting economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.” Further, he says, “Your voice is India’s voice” and “Your priorities are India’s priorities”. Certainly, this was taken up as an initiative by India at the same time G20 was hosted and the intriguing part is India invited around 120 nations who are not part of the G20 forum to discuss and prioritise on a platform where nations can feel levelled to share the perspectives of the challenges. It is an achievement for an emerging nation like India to host as a country from the Global South and also lead an effective summit that was never thought of before. To empower a region, there should be representation from the same region for a change to occur. This way of strategic leadership would result in better solutions and liberation from perpetual problems. In this stance, India’s presidency of G20 concluded with G21. The inclusion of a new permanent member, the African Union (AU), which consists of 55 member states from the African continent, is an added feather to the cap of G20 history. This signifies how truly India has championed the Global South and illuminates the African continent’s strategic significance. Coming to the G20 Summit, the troika of Indonesia, India, and Brazil is itself a leadership of countries from the Global South, and India has achieved a bright response during its tenure. The historic moment was when all 83 paras of the G20 New Delhi Declaration were passed unanimously with a 100 per cent consensus. The theme revolves around ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ or “One Earth, One Family, One Future.” The final meeting of India’s leadership was delivered on the 9th and 10th of September to all the G20 members and invitees. The speech was divided into three segments, One Earth, One Family, and One Future respectively, which cover all the policies and initiatives that took place around the year. India and India’s G20 demonstrated credibility and trust on the global stage. ‘Human-centric development’ was given importance over ‘GDP-centric’ growth. It shows how policies should transcend borders and focus on human development. Furthermore, ‘women-led development’ was concentrated over ‘development for women’ not just in the speech but also as one of the six priorities of the G20. Indeed, this change in terminology is also a sign for shift from old perspectives to the newer ones to put forth better solutions. The emphasis was on increasing investments and access to education, skilling in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) women. For holistic development, India fostered women-led MSMEs and governance from grassroots. A proposal for G20 Talent Visa’ for the betterment of pooling talent and all economies was a critical and appreciated thought by policymakers. India also restated the need for reforms in global institutions like the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) with the evolving problems and presented the growing need for multilateral institutions in this multilateral world. In addition, the struggles related to debt especially plague developing countries, and this was also underlined under India’s G20. Debt- restructuring and reforms for Multilateral Development Banks (MDB) was also a vital part of the agenda. “Our view was that the Global South, developing countries and emerging markets, which has been a key component of India’s (G20) presidency, must be able to get long-term financing and must be able to use new instruments for financing to drive both SDGs (sustainable development goals) and climate finance ,” India’s G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant said. Besides, on the technological and futuristic front, India’s proposal on Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) to connect people across the globe who lack digital identities was primarily commended. PM of India said, “The

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Indo-Chinese relationship and the third Trans Himalayan Forum
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYOCTOBER 21, 2023
117

Indo-Chinese relationship and the third Trans Himalayan Forum

Introduction The idea of a Trans Himalayan Forum first emerged in 2014 when then Chinese Ambassador to India, Wei Wei, proposed the concept to boost cooperation with India and promote a Trans Himalayan economic growth region. It received praise from prominent analysts like C Raja Mohan but wasn’t materialised as it kept India outside, reflecting growing differences in Indo-Chinese ties. As the third Trans Himalayan Forum was organised between 4-5 October, under the theme ‘Promoting the Harmony of Humans and Nature, Sharing the Fruits of Cooperation and Development,’ its location has become an issue in the Indo-China relationship. Indo-China relationship: Overview India and China have enjoyed a healthy relationship since 1988 when India’s PM Rajiv Gandhi visited China, which began a new era for the two Asian giants in their bilateral ties. Such a visit was viewed as a major event in the history of Asian relations, as it allowed them to take the path of economic growth and development in a healthy environment. The road to success of the India-China bilateral ties faced its first jolt following the Doklam incident in 2017. Later, a clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 formed a great wall which was earlier broken down following the 1988 visit with the intent to improve the India-China relationship. Considering the wide gap in military and economic strength and size between India and China, the Galwan Valley episode has become a watershed moment which has worsened the Indo-Chinese bilateral relationship. Considering the Chinese developments in the Aksai Chin region and Southern Tibet – close to Arunachal Pradesh – India is promoting civil and military infrastructure to reduce and counter Chinese move along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). As such, moves have started to become visible, a concerning issue that is being watched closely globally. Meanwhile, India’s PM Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping have barely spoken in person since 2020. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s absence from the 2023 G20 Summit held in Delhi without giving any reason for his absence has raised eyebrows. On the other hand, India’s reservation about Chinese dominance in any multilateral group or bloc like the BRICS reflects a stalemate-like situation in the Indo-China relationship, and China is enjoying the upper hand. Thus, the scope of normalisation of the Indo-Chinese relationship remains low. China, Arunachal Pradesh, the Trans Himalayan Forum, and its impact China organised the first edition of the Trans Himalayan Forum, which was held in 2018 and saw Nepal, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Mongolia as attendees, on the other hand, India was never invited for the 2018 and 2019 editions. The Trans Himalayan forum was established with the objective of bolstering practical cooperation between countries in the region across multiple facets. It aimed to fortify cultural bonds encompassing ecological conservation, geographical connectivity, and environmental preservation. The third Trans Himalayan Forum took place in Nyingchi, a city in South Tibet, China, 160 km from Arunachal Pradesh, India, close to the disputed border, and has become a source of tension in the Indo-China relationship. To understand the complexity around the location of the third Trans Himalayan Forum, there is a need to understand the issue of Arunachal Pradesh first. As China referred the Indian province as part of its territory and renamed it Xizang, and viewed it as a part of Tibet – call it Zagnan – and Arunachal Pradesh/ Xizang continues to be a bone of contention between India and China. As labelling and renaming are part of China’s strategy, and in 2021, it renamed 15 places in Arunachal Pradesh, issued a 2023 standard map showcasing the province as its part and also denied a visa to athletes from the province to attend the Hangzhou Asian Games 2023. Such moves pushed India to lodge a strong complaint with China; however, such developments have only complicated the Indo-Chinese relationship. In such a situation, the location of the third Trans Himalayan Forum and a special invite to Pakistan along with Mongolia and Afghanistan has made the Indo-China convoluted. India continues to be missing from the forum despite its geographical location, reflecting China’s intent to keep India outside the forum. It ensures China’s reach and control in the Himalayan region are maintained to address its vested interest in the region. As the forum witnessed a tour to Tibet to counter the West’s narrative about the province, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi argued that nations must respect each other’s territorial sovereignty, and such a statement and development was directed towards India’s objection to the forum’s location. As Indo-Chinese ties are going through a strained phase, the conclusion of the forum supports India’s Foreign Minister Jaishankar’s’ view that the situation between India and China has been abnormal since the Galwan Valley incident. Conclusion As the world is facing challenges like clash of civilisation and on environmental fronts, China views the forum as a platform which embodies and promotes respect and cooperation among its members, which fits with China’s commitment towards development agenda. However, the nations it invited, the absence of India, highlights China wants to promote Chinese control and rule with like-minded nations. With the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is essential for China to thrive and survive, China has used the forum to promote its objective and implement its geo-strategic policies to keep the humanitarian issue of Tibet hidden and secure the Chinese Communist Party’s rules in the country. As West argues, China is working hard to establish a rule-based international order that fits with its interests, and the Trans Himalayan Forum can be viewed as a piece of such a grand plan. About the Author: Kashif Anwar, is a Research Analyst at Global Strategic & Defence Analyses (GSDN), New Delhi, has an M.Phil in International Studies. His area of research interests is China, the US, India, geo-strategy, geo-economic, military technology, and geopolitical developments in the Indo-Pacific region. He has presented research papers at Jamia Millia Islamia and the Christ (Deemed to be University) Delhi NCR and published his papers

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Statement on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Joining Hands with the Terrorist Taliban
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYOCTOBER 17, 2023
118

Statement on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Joining Hands with the Terrorist Taliban

People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) completes one decade this October 2023. But, of PRC right now, the spotlight is on the Taliban, the pernicious force destroying Afghanistan, as it is set to join BRI soon. Taliban will be attending the Belt and Road Forum in China on October 17th and 18th, making it one of the highest multilateral summits the Taliban has ever been invited to. This reveals the evil mindset of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which is now shaking hands with one of the most destructive Terrorist Taliban and plans to join with it under its already contentious and often accused of Debt Trap enforcing program, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). BRI had been introduced as a tool used by the CCP to engross into malevolent activities like debt trap diplomacy, state-sponsored terrorism, infringement of territorial sovereignty and integrity of nations, and damaging ecology of strategic areas – hidden under the garb of what Beijing casually refers to as “building infrastructure and increasing global trade and connectivity.” The PRC is looking at the Taliban to make Afghanistan a part of CPEC, which is the sly protagonist of BRI used to toy with India’s sovereignty by passing the corridor through PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) territory of Gilgit Baltistan. Any country is yet to recognize the so-called Taliban authority formally. Still, under an equally repressive rule of the CCP, the PRC became the first country to appoint an ambassador to Kabul and has ever since tried to engage with the Taliban actively. The major focus of the PRC is not only to create a wedge with India but also to exploit the natural resources of Afghanistan. The war-torn, impoverished country has untapped copper, gold, and lithium deposits worth trillions of dollars. It is absolutely clear that the CCP can use any situation and exploit it for its benefit. Hence, it is now going to pour its money made from the “Uyghur forced labour” manufacturing activities into mining projects in Afghanistan heavily. Red Lantern Analytica strongly condemns such acts of the People’s Republic of China to join hands with the evil Taliban. We remind the world that the Taliban is a dangerous outfit that has been continuously creating havoc in Afghanistan for decades, and should be criticised and not be partnered with like the CCP-led PRC is doing. We would also like to appeal to the Free world to take notice of this unfortunate albeit deliberate act from the CCP and condemn it in every possible way.

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Taliban-China increasing ties: Implications for India
UNTRADITIONAL SECURITYOCTOBER 16, 2023
119

Taliban-China increasing ties: Implications for India

Taliban has shown interest in joining the 3rd Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Forum to be held on 17-18 October in Beijing. This forum is to mark the 10th anniversary of ambitious global infrastructure and connectivity initiative BRI. Taliban spokesman Akhundzada Abdul Salam Jawad told the media that Taliban’s acting minister for commerce and industry, Haji Nooruddin Azizi will attend the forum. Azizi is supposed to have discussion on construction of road through Wakhan corridor wo provide direct access to China. Wakhan corridor is about 350 km long and 16 to 64 km wide and provides the only border connection of Afghanistan with Xinjiang of China. On 4-5 October 2023, on the sidelines of 3rd Trans-Himalaya Forum for International Cooperation in Tibet, Chinese and Afghanistan Acting foreign minister had discussed opening of Wakhan corridor to strengthen trade ties. If this corridor plan is implemented then there are chances that Pakistan may also use this to further connect to Central Asian Republics (CAR). Since August 2021, China’s approach to the Taliban has been governed by security concerns and aversion to violent extremism. China’s main objective in Afghanistan is to stop violent extremism and terrorism from destabilizing the area. It doesn’t want any kind of spillover into China. In addition to keeping terrorism from spreading to Xinjiang, China considers Afghanistan as a means of protecting its investments in Pakistan and Central Asia. Earlier, China and Pakistan in May had discussed extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan. Taliban spokesman has said that through this BRI Forum Afghanistan is looking to attract more investments. But the primary question is will the Afghans gain any profit from these BRI projects if implemented. The answer is that the common people of Afghanistan won’t gain anything, only the Taliban will gain profits which will be used in their operations to further suppress the rights of Afghans. China is the first country to appoint an ambassador to Afghanistan even though China has not formally recognized the Taliban led government. China’s approach to Afghanistan has evolved since 2001, moving from a non-engagement “observer” policy (2002–2010) to an agenda based on economics (2011–2017), and finally to an agenda dominated by security (post–2018). China’s foremost security concern is possible challenges from the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, an organization that aims to free Xinjiang Province and the Uyghur people from Chinese government authority and install an Islamic order. In 2001, during the Global war on Terror, China did not show particular interest in Afghanistan as the US and its allies were present there but it was interested in stabilising the internal conflicts in the fear of spillover to Xinjiang. However, this approach changed when the US announced its complete withdrawal from Afghanistan which could have led to resurgence of terrorism and instability near its borders. The US withdrawal has led to a vacuum that China is exploiting. China is concerned that a destabilized Afghanistan will be a favourable environment for the ETIM or other organizations looking to utilize Afghanistan as a base. These increasing ties of China and Afghanistan, considering that China has already ‘all weather friendship’ with Pakistan, can have security implications on India. Recently China has added Afghanistan in the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. CPEC is built on Indian territory illegally occupied by Pakistan and now involving another actor into this will have repercussions in the region. Afghanistan is an important neighbour for India. India’s regional economic ambitions, which include stronger links with Iran and Central Asia, depend on Afghanistan. Already the Taliban is posing a threat to India, and its connections to Pakistan and Islamist organizations like Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed raise further concerns and now its increasing ties with China can have implications to India. China’s need to use the Indian Ocean (IO) routes for its trade and energy needs may increase if the CPEC and BRI routes from Central Asia to South Asia via Afghanistan become more connected and integrated. This can have impact on the geopolitical environment in the region and raise India’s threat perception of China’s prospective naval presence in the IO Region, which would only lead to naval competition. India’s passivity will allow the Taliban and China to claim that the China-led CPEC does not infringe upon Indian sovereignty, since the project passes through Indian territory that is occupied by Pakistan. Given China’s expanding economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan, it is likely that China’s intervention in Afghanistan will have significant implications for India’s geopolitical, security, and economic interests in the South Asian region. The economic, political, and security concerns of India in the area are expected to be affected by China’s investments, infrastructural development, and influence in Afghanistan. Additionally, India’s national security may be directly or indirectly threatened by the changing security circumstances in Afghanistan, particularly in the wake of the American withdrawal. Author: Kritika Rajput

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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Press Release of Webinar on ‘Azerbaijan’s Aggression Over Armenia’s Nagorno-Karabakh’ held 15th October 2023
MEDIA COVERAGEOCTOBER 16, 2023
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Press Release of Webinar on ‘Azerbaijan’s Aggression Over Armenia’s Nagorno-Karabakh’ held 15th October 2023

On October 15th, 2023, Red Lantern Analytica and The Network State, jointly conducted a webinar titled ‘Azerbaijan’s Aggression Over Armenia’s Nagorno-Karabakh’. The expert speakers of the webinar included – Vahram Ayvazyan, Founder and Board Chairman at The Network State; Vahan Zanoyan, Global Energy and Security Specialist; Major General Ashok Kumar (Retd.), Kargil War Veteran & Military Expert; and Michael Nersisyan, UK Based Armenian Journalist. The moderator of the session was Paul Antonopoulos, Editor of Greek City Times. Paul Antonopoulos from Greek City Times commenced the session by elaborating on the topic focusing on Azerbaijan’s aggression in Armenia’s Nagorno-Karabakh. He said that Azerbaijan has been an autocratic country under its current ruler Ilham Aliyev, son of the former president, Heydar. He has suppressed minority rights in the country. He has astutely used his country’s wealth to forge close relationships with other autocratic regimes across the world in order to gain supporters & allies for Azerbaijan’s aggression against Armenia. Major General Ashok Kumar (Retd.) pointed out the hypocrisy of the Global community in their approach to events involving two regions in a bitter war. “People in large numbers spoke against Russia-Ukraine tensions as well as the ongoing violent conflict between Gaza & Israel but hardly hue & cry happened against Azebaijan’s aggression against Armenia”, he said. Major General Ashok Kumar highlighted the peculiarity of ethnic population and geographic areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. The first war for Nagorno-Karabakh started in 1988. It continued for almost 6 years, was won by Armenia in clear terms, and became unified with the country, he said. There was some peace for 14 years but from 2008 a different kind of trend started emerging with the 2008 Mardakert clashes, he added. Major General Ashok Kumar (Retd.) said that from 2014, things started turning in favour of Azerbaijan, he further added. In the 2020 war, Azerbaijan gained a huge territorial victory with the country capturing cities and villages in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In 2023, Azerbaijan forced the entire population in the region to migrate to Armenia to save lives but the entire world remained silent on the tragedy. Vahan Zanoyan pointed out the rich natural mineral resources angle in the Nagorno-Karabakh region which Azerbaijan wants to exploit. He said Armenia was an independent country before the Soviet Union with Nagorno-Karabakh being shown as its parts in the maps by League of Nations. He further said that there is no legal way to defend Azerbaijan’s claim on Nagorno-Karabakh. He put light on the geopolitics of trade routes in the region with Armenia providing smooth access to both Europe and Asia. “Understanding this region is significant to understand the geography of Nagorno-Karabakh or Artsakh as the axes of this region is surrounded by key players in the world who eye for the trade routes,” he said. He also informed the audience about Turkey’s role in the Armenia and Azerbaijan war. Turkey supplied logistics support, advanced weapons, military hardware & intelligence to Azerbaijan. Georgia provided its airspace to Azerbaijan & Turkey but not to Armenia. He said that Azerbaijan’s Army heavily outnumbered the Armenian Army. Vahan Zanoyan also elaborated on the role of the infrastructure & commercial interests of the Western World in Azerbaijan. He said that British Petroleum is heavily invested in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital and that’s why its BBC remained so much pro-Azerbaijan throughout the war. Another dimension mentioned by him included Azerbaijan’s act of erasing the history of occupied regions by bringing down churches and all other historical monuments. He said that there are huge chance that Azerbaijan will do the same in Nagorno-Karabakh. He concluded by saying that Azerbaijan is getting away by doing all this with the support of nations like Turkey and its strong propaganda machinery. Vahram Ayvazyan said that Azerbaijan is part of the ‘One Turkey’ or Turan project. It is a project to Turkify everything in regions like Central Asia, Iran, the Indian Subcontinent, China and Russia. He also warned that the ugly marriage between Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey is dangerous for both Armenia and India. He pitched for an Indian military base in Armenia to balance things in the region. Vahram Ayvazyan called for a stronger India-Armenia partnership as India can be a good negotiator with both the West and Russia & balance helps in balancing things in the region. Michael Nersisyan said that Azerbaijan is making lots of mistakes in its endeavours and it will reach breaking point soon. He said, “A lot of political capital is the cost of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan’s mistakes are the loss for the civilians than the leaders.” Azerbaijan’s aggression in collaboration with Pakistan and Turkey is a big challenge for Russia, China and India, he added. There is no end to hunger for land and the expansionist agenda of these countries, he warned. Michael Nersisyan also added that there is very negative sentiment against the UN in the region and the UN has largely become irrelevant when it comes to stopping war & ensuring peace in the world. Following the guest speaker’s address, there was an in-depth Q&A session. Ms Karneet Bhasin senior member of Red Lantern Analytica delivered the vote of Thanks. The session closed after the vote of thanks was given.

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Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
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