CommentariesMARCH 20, 2024

Taliban, from Freedom Fighters to Fissures: Imran Khan’s Pashtun Power Play.

Team Red Lantern Analytica

Directorate of Intelligence

Pakistan’s political landscape is a complicated mixture of both power and identity.

Imran Khan’s approach particularly in his characterisation of the Afghan Taliban as “freedom fighters” and his calls for dialogue with extremist elements often courted controversy. However, it is discernible that he transcended this contentious terrain to embody a persona emblematic of the delicate balance between soft Islamism and strategic pragmatism.

Khan leveraged his Pashtun heritage and deftly tapped into the simmering undercurrents of Pashtun discontent with Punjabi dominance in both the military and bureaucracy.

His rhetoric, often characterised by conciliatory overtures towards the TTP, demonstrated his profound grasp of the complex interplay between ideological imperatives and regional dynamics. He walked a fine line between appeasing the Taliban and maintaining strategic alliances within the military.

Khan’s Pashtun heritage played both a boon and a burden in his navigation of Pakistan’s turbulent political waters. By tapping into the long-standing grievances of Pashtun marginalisation under Punjabi dominance, Khan positioned himself as a champion of a diverse Pakistani identity transcending provincial boundaries.

It’s also this very embrace of identity politics that cast a shadow of suspicion upon him in the hallowed halls of the Punjabi-dominated military establishment, once his allies.

As Khan’s advocacy for a greater Pashtun role in preserving Pakistan’s unity gained momentum, so too did the scrutiny and skepticism from within the corridors of power.

He often invoked the arm and militant strength of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) as a testament to his power and political prowess, while alluding to the secession of East Pakistan in 1971 as a cautionary tale. Within these narratives lay a veiled warning: any disregard for his mandate might embolden Pashtuns to assert their rights more forcefully, thereby risking Pakistan’s sovereignty and inviting external interference. These nuanced insinuations, aimed at keeping the military establishment in check, exacerbated tensions and sparked further concerns about the repercussions of Khan’s political manoeuvres and his eventual removal from office.

His purported victimisation by the military has now and understandably caused a significant shift in both rhetoric and action in the Pashtun heartland.

The TTP’s more pronounced emphasis on Pashtun identity, rather than solely Islamic ideology, reflects a strategic recalibration aimed at capitalising on Khan-fanned regional sentiments of marginalisation.

Khan’s victimisation by the Punjabi-dominated army has galvanised resentment within the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, while Faiz Hameed’s transition from a mediator to an instigator hints at deeper fractures within the Pakistan Army, Pakistan’s worst nightmare.

As tensions simmer and fissures widen, attacks on regular army units will continue to increase, while KPK police, now seen as collaborators subservient to a perceived anti-army regime, will face reduced threats.

Against this backdrop of ethnic fault lines, power struggles, and regional dynamics, Pakistan’s internal stability hangs precariously in the balance and paints a very volatile picture for Pakistan’s security apparatus.

As they say in Pakistan, “Ab Allah Hi Haafiz Hai.”

Author:

Sonam Mahajan
Strategic thinker and Geopolitical Analyst

X (Previously Twitter) Handle: @AsYouNotWish

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Evergrande’s Fall Exposes the Deeper Fault Lines in China’s Property-Led Growth Model

The sentencing of Hui Ka Yan, Xu Jiayin, founder of the China Evergrande Group, to life in prison marks the conclusion of more than just the fall of one of China’s biggest businessmen. Hui was found guilty of eight offenses, including fraud, misappropriation of funds, securities violations, and bribery. Evergrande, formerly the largest real estate developer in China by contracted sales, turned to almost all of its $300 billion plus liabilities. Hui’s trial may mark the end of a significant legal case, but the Evergrande case does not end the massive economic case Evergrande came to represent. China’s real estate bubble was not a tale of just increasing house prices. It involved a tightly connected system of households, developers, banks, and local governments. Property became the main wealth purchasing and saving vehicle for Chinese households. In a survey by the People’s Bank of China, 59.1% of urban households’ assets were held in the form of housing, and the home ownership rate was 96%. Increasing house prices had an effect beyond an increase in construction. House prices had a positive effect on household wealth perceptions, confidence, and consumption. For developers, the system was designed to incentivize expansion. Land was bought and presold apartments, loans made it possible for developers to start new projects, and growing property evaluations enabled more borrowing. Evergrande was one of the developers who pushed the system the farthest. It can be described as the “three highs” consisting of high turnover, high costs, and high leverage. Evergrande’s model was to raise capital, buy land on a massive scale, and begin development while also borrowing against their land and starting the cycle over. So long as lenders continued to lend and buyers continued to buy, investors and developers alike continued to benefit from the cycle and the land and housing prices continued to grow. Local government interests were aligned with the developers. After the 1994 tax-sharing reform, the central government gained more revenue, leaving local governments shouldering a greater financial burden. To offset some of the burden, local governments sold land to developers and used land as collateral for loans. By 2019, it is calculated that local governments’ reliance on land finance was at 38.6 percent, with over 50 percent in many large cities. Property prices and local government finance and debt fuelled a cycle of increasing infrastructure spending. This outlines how vital property investment became for China. The IMF put the contribution of property to the economy at up to 20 percent. However, this number does not even come close to capturing the extent of property’s reach. 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COMMENTARIESAUGUST 21, 2025

Reimagining Oman as an Indian Ocean Green Hub: Looking at a Post-Carbon Future

The few stereotypes that persist regarding the Gulf are of its importance as a hydrocarbon centre over the past eight decades, since Bahrain and Saudi Arabia struck Oil in the 1930s. Oman, in comparison, struck Oil in Fahud in 1962, and shipped its first container from Mina Al Fahal in 1967. The oil revenues formed the bedrock of rebuilding the country during the 1970s, during which the Dhofar rebellion was still on. Oman is a Shell country, like Brunei, where Shell has been strategic in the country’s hydrocarbon exploration through a major stake in Petroleum Development Oman, or PDO, as commonly known. Many PDO employees have worked for Shell Brunei and Shell Sarawak as a part of their career circulations in the global MNC network. Oman was never a massive producer of petroleum as its wealthier neighbours in the GCC, even though its natural gas imprint is significant. 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These workers, who were heavily reliant on precarious work, were being moved away from their off-grid homes to build a Chinese-funded solar park in relatively prosperous Oman. The irony was not lost on me. Globally accepted ESG governance norms kicked in, the move triggered an independent Resettlement Action Plan for these workers. Climate and Local developmental politics intersect in the middle of nowhere. The Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank or AIIB is the backer for the Ibri 2 Project, and Chinese contractors were the hands on Ibri 2. Belt and Road is right on our doorstep. Indian Engineers and Consultants work on these Chinese-funded projects as the technical hands behind the scenes. There are numerous other solar projects in the pipeline in the Wilayat of Manah. These areas are close to the Saudi Border and could be a part of an integrated GCC power grid. 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