Tracker, 9 Nov 2021
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Related Intelligence
AFGHANISTANJANUARY 8, 2023
01A Taliban takeover which benefitted no one
The US troops had not even left Afghanistan when the Taliban took control of Kabul. On 16th August, a day after Kabul fell to the Taliban forces, the then Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan claimed that Pakistan had broken the shackles of slavery. A year since that, the jubilation has subdued, as Pakistan is gripped with insurgencies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. In its pursuit of strategic depth and the infatuation with having the Taliban govern Afghanistan, Pakistan has pushed the security structure in the Afgan-Pak region to the brink of collapse, threatening not just the continued existence of the state of Afghanistan and Pakistan but also the billions of dollars that China has invested in Pakistan and its ambitions in Afghanistan. At the time of writing, Pakistan is facing dual insurgencies in KP and Balochistan. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been emboldened by the Taliban’s capture of Kabul and has been a recipient of the Taliban’s hospitality, something which Pakistan expected for itself. In the last year, TTP has conducted more than 350 attacks across Pakistan. In Balochistan, BLA has received renewed support from the TTP, and Pakistan now finds itself fighting a two-front war. Balochistan, regrettably for Pakistan is also a host to China’s biggest investment in the form of CPEC. A mild level insurgency has been going on in the region for over decades. China’s interference via investments has also become a point of conflict between Pakistani authorities and Baloch insurgents. Pakistan had hoped with the Taliban ruling Afghanistan, it’d finally be able to fence the border across the Durand Line. However, that has not been the case. Cross-border firings across the Durand Line have increased incessantly. Moreover, since coming to power Taliban has released maps which show the Greater Pashtunistan region as part of the Afghan territory. China, which had hosted the Taliban leadership after the fall of Kabul, and refused to close down its embassy along with Russia in the Afghan capital, had high hopes of getting its hands on the $1.3 trillion worth of Afghan minerals and securing a route for its ambitious BRI has failed to achieve any of its objectives. In addition, it is growing incessantly aggrieved about the current security situation in Balochistan, KP and Gilgit Baltistan through which the CPEC passes. Incidentally, China has also refused to furnish further loans to Pakistan until the security situation improves in the region. Currently, Chinese loans amount to a quarter of Pakistan’s external debt. Without fresh funds coming to the nation, Pakistan’s economy is in free fall. Its exports have dried up and food imports to the nation have dried up the country’s Forex reserve which is below $5 billion. Pakistan faces an unprecedented climb out of the economic and security situation. Parallels of its economic situation can be drawn with Sri Lanka. The Sri Lankan economic crisis was the worst economic crisis since its independence. China’s share in Sri Lanka’s external debt was around 20% which shows the seriousness of Pakistan’s economic situation which could be on the brink of collapse. There is no doubt that the current economic and security situation in the Afgan-Pak region has been exacerbated by the Taliban’s capture of Kabul. If Pakistan is unable to secure its borders and weed out the insurgencies there is a greater risk of Pakistan breaking up which would be detrimental to the security of South Asia as a whole. Pakistan is a nuclear state and has a population of 220 million. Its neighbours, especially India and China (Xinjiang) face unprecedented mass immigration and the threat of nuclear terrorism. Therefore, Pakistan requires greater attention from the international community. While the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan was welcomed by Pakistan and China alike, they now face unprecedented risk to their future and investments respectively.
TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
AFGHANISTANJANUARY 6, 2023
02South Asia: not one but many
South Asia has a long-shared history of ancestry, culture, and colonisation (most of it, not all) and a history of partition, struggle for independence and forming different forms of governments, making them all very different from each other. However, looking at the linkages and earlier being part of one subcontinent, one would expect them to have carried forward that integration, but that has not happened. It remains one of the least integrated regions of the world. Realising this long ago that there was a need to bring the area together for increasing integration and cooperation, the countries formed SAARC (the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation) in 1985. There was a hope that this organisation might finally bring the long-awaited integration. However, it seemed to be failing with time, mainly because of unresolved territorial disputes between the member states, particularly India and Pakistan. There were no SAARC summits held after the 2014 SAARC Summit in Kathmandu. The upcoming Summit, which was supposed to happen in 2016 in Islamabad, got cancelled due to tensions between India and Pakistan. There is no scope for future SAARC summits until the dispute gets resolved, which has as much chance as the China-Taiwan dispute getting solved. In a recent news release, it was reported that “it takes 138 hours to move a truck across the border from India to Bangladesh, and there are 22 documents required and 55 signatures. So, in many ways, South Asia is not well integrated” (Basu, 2022). What is sad is that this situation exists despite the two countries being in such geographical proximity. With the political regimes changing in the region, one state after another, stability needs to be there for countries to work upon some mutually agreed deals. Free trade should be everyone’s priority as it benefits all. There are disagreements over political culture existing in different countries and on geopolitics, but should these affect the trade relations? With regional integration, the South Asian economy can become one of the largest in the world. A report also noted, “Despite massive connectivity plans and infrastructure development, South Asia remains the least integrated region in the world — just 5 per cent of its total trade takes place within the region. Greater integration and seamless connectivity could see trade increase by an estimated $44 billion, according to Cecile Fruman, Director, Regional Integration and Engagement in the South Asia Region (SAR), World Bank’ (Basu, 2022). “In 2019, India and Pakistan undertook trade-restrictive measures against each other, perhaps the most severe in several decades. After the Pulwama terror attack in Kashmir in February 2019 and cross-border air strikes, India withdrew Pakistan’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status and imposed a customs duty hike of 200% on imports. Later, when India revoked the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan suspended bilateral trade” (Hindu, 2021). It costs both countries in terms of expenses incurred to find alternatives. Similarly, Pakistan blocking India’s deal with Afghanistan to trade or transport goods only hampers the integration process. The region is complicated as it remains stuck in the past, halting projects in the present and putting in jeopardy their future. The ongoing conflicts between the countries have become the greatest obstacle to achieving cooperation. The unresolved conflicts are stretched for political gains, neglecting the greater regional interest and benefit one can take advantage of. On a positive note, it is a good sign that Nepal and India are coming together to discuss pending projects after the relations between the two soured last year. With regime change in Pakistan, there is a hope that the new government might relax some trade restrictions put on India to revive their economy. As Sri Lanka is in its worst economic crisis since independence, India is now taking the lead and coming forward to help it deal with the situation regarding aid and grants. Restoring stability brings hope that the countries could continue their trade on better terms which were affected due to Sri Lanka’s previous deals with China. However, this only shows that states are now preferring to go bilateral over working together as a group, entailing some positive outcomes. However, if the region unites, its economy could overtake many leading economies today. It is hard to say if the region’s prospect is to integrate, but it needs to act on it. The SAARC member states must realise the more significant gain here and try to work on their fault lines. Political skirmishes are coming in the way of trade, which is never a good sign; even China is India’s greatest trading partner despite their ongoing border disputes, only because one cannot risk their economy. Diplomatic solutions must pave the way, and leaders must meet and address the concerns of their respective countries. No other way can bring the region to grow and prosper than engagement. It is a long way, and it will not be easy. It will be interesting to see how this turns out to be. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is already a food shortage; neighboring states could help each other out. These solutions may sound utopian, but it is better to hope than give up.
TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst
AFGHANISTANDECEMBER 18, 2021
03Tracker, 18 Dec 2021
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TR
Team Red Lantern AnalyticaAnalyst